The last 12 months has been crazy. A year ago, the market was still terrible. Six months ago, it was red hot. Now? Well, it is cooling off. Don’t worry, I don’t think it is going to get worse it is just that…..well, just keep reading.

Let me start by saying I am the canary in the coal mine. I got into this business in early 2005. My first listing was one that statistically should have sold quickly. I was a newbie, but I remember thinking it wasn’t going like it should. Well, it was because the market was slowing down only nobody really knew it at the time. Hindsight IS 20/20.

Fastforward to the end of last year. I said that the bottom of the market had been reached…..at least in/around Lexington. ALL of 2013 until the past few months has been red hot. We had such a shortage of listings that houses were selling as soon as they hit the market. Realtors were begging other realtors on our Facebook group to let them know if they had new listings coming up soon because they could not find a house for their buyers. It was the first time I have ever seen anything like that. Something that I found interesting was that despite how hot the market was and all the multiple offers, I didn’t see many buyers going over the asking price. Back in the super hot days of the early 2000’s, going over the asking price was the norm in multiple offers. Guess the sting of the housing slump still had buyers a bit cautious.

So, while you are reading headlines and seeing on the news that sales are way up compared to last year, let me tell you what is happening at this very moment. Monthly sales are DOWN about 25% compared to each month this year through July. Sure, some of that is because it always slows down when school starts. Most people with families want to be in their new place before school starts in August. I am not seeing agents begging other agents to let them know when a new listing is about to hit the market. My Realtor friends aren’t posting how crazy the market is. When I look through the daily pending sales, fewer of them got contracts in the first week on the market.

I think the rising interest rates and rising prices is what has slowed it down so much. Think about it. You are seeing on the news that it is the best time to buy a house in forever, everybody is predicting interest rates and house values are going to go up. It just makes sense we had that frenzy earlier this year. It also makes sense that, just like the market after the First Time Buyer Tax Credits of yesteryear, you have a bit of a bust because almost everybody who was going to buy this year already did!

I think we will see it be this slow until next spring. Does that make it a bad time to sell? Not if your house is one of the best choices in it’s price range. Remember, as long as there is a buyer out there, they will always buy the best house in their price range. It just means that today is not as good of a time to be a seller as it was earlier this year.

Long story short…..we went from a buyer’s market, to a seller’s market, and now we are in a balanced market. A balanced market is one that doesn’t make the news. I bet that if it keeps up like this for 4-6 months, you’ll hardly see real estate make the news like it has for the past several years.

Without a doubt, the market is the best it has been in years.  Increased sales and higher sale prices.  Great time to sell.  BUT, if you’re like me, you’re seeing all your Realtor friends on Facebook post about a shortage of listings or that it is a seller’s market or how busy they are after practically being on vacation for the past 6 years.  Sooooo, thought I’d throw in a bit of reality…..no clarity, about where we are today.

Yes, there is a shortage of good listings.  Good ones are going fast, but you know what, they always have.  I’ve sold houses very quickly in even the worst market.  Not patting myself on the back.  The truth is that in any market, the best ones sell because they are the ones everybody wants.  I’ve always said that as long as there is one buyer out there, they will buy the best house they can find….we just have more buyers out there right now than we have had in a long time and that has people excited.

If you are a number person, you’ll like to know that there are 224 pending sales on LBAR in Lexington with asking prices from $120-300k AND THAT IS JUST IN THE PAST 30 DAYS!!!!!  Sounds great, huh.  It is.  It is unless you are one of the 834 sellers whose house those 224 buyers didn’t pick.  Yep, there are still 834 active listings meeting that same criteria.

It is still all about price-location-condition.   Those that got it will get multiple offers.  Those that don’t, well, despite what the calendar says, it is still about 2011 for those houses.  Be sure you do not get caught up in the frenzy and pay too much for a house that doesn’t have the location-condition part because there are a lot of buyers from the early 2000’s frenzy that will tell you they paid too much even in an appreciating market.  Back then, they just felt lucky to have gotten a house that in a buyer’s market was the one that was nobody’s first or second pick.

I think I’ll hit on ways to make sure you can get one of the best houses on my next post.  I’ve got a few tricks up my sleeve that are far more creative than going over the asking price by $1000….I mean, that is so old school that the other agents in a multiple offer situation are probably doing the same thing.  There is more to an offer than just money to motivate a seller 🙂

I scheduled an appointment to show a house in Beaumont Reserve recently.  I’m thinking it is going to be like usual, where my client and I leisurely show up to a vacant house……only, there is another agent in the house, and two other agents with their clients waiting to see it.  There are cars and people everywhere like the seller’s was having a yard sale.  The house wasn’t priced low, it was just a fair asking price for a non-updated house with lots of wallpaper……oh, and this is the house’s first day on the market.

I call on a house on Old Cassidy in Chevy Chase to schedule an appointment.  After just hours on the market, it has a contract already.  That contract didn’t work out, so the agent tells me I can see it.  I schedule a 2nd showing the very next day and it has sold.

I’m inside an awesome house on Colony in Chevy Chase.  Look out the window, and another agent is waiting to show it.  Two hours later, the listing agent calls me to say that an offer is coming, and it isn’t from the agent that was coming in as I was leaving.

I’m in a house in Palomar.  It’s the first day on the market and I’m showing it at noon.  It has already been shown 3 times.

Another house on Chenault in Chevy Chase gets shown 11 times the first day on the market.  The seller is so full of confidence that he doesn’t even respond to the more than fair offer my client made.

Then, you probably know I just bought a house the first day on the market that had 3 other offers on it.

Here’s what’s going on with the Lexington market:  Everybody is wanting the better houses in the better neighborhoods.  I don’t mean just high-end ones, I mean the buyers are wanting the nicest houses and the best neighborhoods in all price ranges.  Prices for houses that meet that description have gone up, while the rest remain flat.  It is a hot market again, but this time it is just for the “Right” properties……it’s still 2011 for all the other sellers.