Month: August 2020

What’s that gonna do to my property value?

by John Rice

It’s a questions I get asked often, so I thought I would share some examples about what affects property value and what doesn’t….most of these have been asked by friends and clients, for which I am thankful they deemed me to be enough of an expert to ask!

“The golf course behind my house went bankrupt and I’m worried about it getting developed”

I got this one a lot since I lived in such a neighborhood where this happened. People that lived on the course were worried that their values would drop if there wasn’t a golf course behind them. If the land got developed to be single family homes that were priced about the same as the rest of the neighborhood, it would not impact value. Sure, if it was your house you would know the view you used to have, but to the person buying your house, all they know is that there are houses behind your house just like most of the rest of the neighborhood. (BTW, when this happened in my former neighborhood, there was no value difference for the lot. Houses of similar size and similar condition were selling for the same regardless of whether the house sat on the course or backed to other houses in the neighborhood.)

“The city is taking part of my lot for storm sewer runoff.”

This friend of mine lives in a historic neighborhood where all the houses on his street have large, deep lots. He showed me where the city was going to install underground drains and described what it would look like. It wasn’t going to be ugly. Fortunately his lot was big enough that his backyard was still huge by today’s standards. I said it wouldn’t impact value at all since there was still plenty enough backyard for future buyers to have room for kids to play, a pool, etc. It was functionally the same before and after.

“My neighborhood got redistricted to another school”

This one happens a lot. If the school you are losing performs equal to the new one you are getting, then it won’t impact value. If you are going from one of the highest performing schools to a lower performing school, well, that isn’t so good. If you are going from a poorly performing school to a better one, your values could go up!

“They are going to build apartments in my neighborhood.”

This seems to be happening a lot. Density in Lexington is only going to get worse as we attempt to fill every square foot inside the urban service area before entertaining the idea of expanding it. People in Lexington are used to this. While the increase in traffic in your neighborhood will be annoying compared to what it used to be, future buyers won’t know how good you used to have it. Plus, people in Lexington are used to traffic. Unless your house backs up directly to the new apartments or you are on the road that everybody living in the apartments will use, it won’t impact value.

I think when it is YOUR house, it is easy to think any change will be negative. You will remember backing to the golf course, when you used to have a bigger backyard, the school your kids went to and what that vacant field looked like before it became apartments. The thing to remember is that when you go to sell your house, the buyer has no idea how things were. They only know how things are now. A prime example of this in my own house is noise. When I moved here, there was a lot of undeveloped land around me. It was very quiet. With all the new development around me came things like hearing fire trucks or ambulances, dogs barking in the distance, the sound of kids playing. I miss the peace and quiet but you know what? All the changes are things most people see as being normal in any neighborhood, so it doesn’t hurt my value one bit.

Worried about the real estate market crashing? This will help

by John Rice

We are living in the first tough economy since the Great Recession. Naturally there are people that worry about the real estate market crashing again. The memory of half the houses on any street being for sale and owing more on your house than it is worth is all too fresh.

While I don’t see any need to be concerned about that happening again, I got to thinking about what that would look like if it were to happen.

Let’s look at a huge difference between 2005 and today. Both are times when the real estate market was on fire.

Back in 2005, the interest rates I was seeing were around 5.5%. The market was good. Values were high. Then when the 2006 season kicked off, it wasn’t as good. The following years until 2012 got worse and worse. Fewer buyers. More sellers. More foreclosures. Unlike stocks, real estate values usually rise gradually and fall even more gradually. Short of a landfill being built behind your house, you are not going to wake up one day and find your house is worth 20% less than it was the day prior. Remember this because I will bring it up later.

That person who paid $300k for a house in 2005. Let’s say they did a 30 year mortgage at 5.5%. One year into their mortgage, they owed about $296k still. After five years, they still owed about $277,500. This is why many of them had to BRING money to a closing when they needed to move in 2010. Back then, one of the first things you would ask a potential seller was “How much do you owe on it?” Many were upside down on their houses, which is why many chose to walk away and let the house get foreclosed.

Today, a buyer can get a 2.875% interest rate for the same $300k house. That is just over half what it was 15 years ago. After one year, they owe about $293,500. After five years, they owe around $266k.

Okay, now it’s time to remember I said real estate values, when they drop, don’t drop fast. It took about 5 years for values in the Lexington area to drop about 15% from the 2005 peak values. Some houses didn’t even loose that much. Picking a good house with a good floor plan, on a good lot, in a desirable neighborhood for the price range and with average or better performing schools is the best way to protect yourself from a bad market. If you look at the math on today’s buyer getting a super low interest rate, you will see that in five years, they have paid off about 12% of their balance. If they get a couple years of appreciation before a decline, the numbers are even better!

I know I got a little nerdy there with the math. Sorry. In the end, my point is that should the market crash again, today’s buyer is going to be in much much much better shape due to low interest rates. If the value of your house drops at the same rate that you are paying down your mortgage, then the worst thing that can happen is you just aren’t building equity in the house. It’s effectively like you’ve been renting where you pay to live there and walk away with nothing when you sell…..and this is the worst case scenario. The best case scenario is that the market stays good and you build a ton of equity. I just don’t see much risk in buying a house right now thanks to low rates.