Market Update

What will 2026 be like?

by John Rice

I think it will be like 2008. Don’t panic though. Next year shouldn’t be like the 2009 market.

In 2008, we were starting to feel the market slow down. It peaked in 2005 just as it did a couple years ago. We were all in denial back then, hoping what we were seeing in California and Arizona would not come here. It did, but not as severe. The Lexington/Bluegrass market has always been pretty stable and resiliant.

So, by 2008 we were seeing a lot of price reductions. A lot of rising inventory. Only the best houses were selling fast. A seller had to do some prep work to make their house stand out. Many sellers were in denial because they had bought in a frenzy. They were shocked not to have a line of buyers wanting their house the first day on the market. Being a realtor began to be a real job that required skills where you really need to know the market, know how to negotiate, and know how to present a house so it stands out among all the competing listings.

I would normally use this paragraph to contrast 2008 to the current market. Since it is identical, just go back up there and substitute 2026 where I wrote 2008.

Don’t worry though. There are no signs of a coming crash. This slow down is driven by lack of demand due to affordability. Back then, the market crashed due to bad mortgages causing forclosures.

I think the rest of this year will see little appreciation, frustrated sellers, cautious buyers and a lot of realtors getting out of the business.

A bridge not to burn

by John Rice

We are back in a market where buyers want to test sellers and see how far they will bend.

Used to be that the average List-to-Sale percentage was about 97%. That means that the house sold for 97% of the list price. As the market got hot right before COVID, it inched up. During and immediately after COVID, houses were selling for no less than full price, many going for 10% or more over the list price.

Those days are gone. I occasionally see a house that will go for slightly over the list price. That is only for super amazing houses that got multiple offers immediately. Short of that happening, full price is about the best a seller can expect and not a whole lot sell for that.

I have had many sellers this year get super discouraged when we finally got an offer. Most will tell me they don’t even want to reply to it. I tell them that it doesn’t matter what the initial offer is. What matters is how high the buyer will go. Most of the time the buyer will end up paying an amount that the seller is satisfied with.

If a buyer offers 92% of the list price, odds are they will go to 96%.

If a buyer asks for $5k in repairs after a home inspection, odds are they will settle for $2500.

It is crazy how predictable this is. So much so that when I get an offer or a repair list, I am usually correct on where it will end.

So, if you are a seller, be prepared for this. Don’t be offended. Don’t reject the offer or burn the bridge. Keep playing the game until it is over. Odds are you will be glad you did.

The market is changing

by John Rice

No doubt, there has been a shift this year.

Few sellers have to move. Most just want to. None of them are excited about being a buyer if they need to finance their next home. They don’t want to give up their very low interest rate they got during COVID. They are upset that they can no longer expect to sell their house the first day on the market, get above list price, and the buyer waive a home inspection.

Buyers are only buying if they really need to move. They don’t like the combination of high prices and high interest rates. They have more choices and power in the transaction than ever, but they can’t see the forest for the trees.

First time buyers account for the lowest percentage of buyers in forever. Most first time buyers seem to want to skip the small, boring most affordable houses and rent until they can afford what we used to call the “Move up” house. This is leaving most houses under $250k to investors. Almost every super affordable house I have sold this year has been purchased by an investor. Even in multiple offers, they are easier to work with and will often pay the most for a house.

Basically nobody is happy.

This is the first time in my 20 year career of seeing such pessimism from both sellers and buyers in a fairly good market. The only other time I have seen both parties this discouraged is during the Great Recession. It was an extreme Buyer’s Market so sellers were unhappy. Buyers were worried their house would be worth less than they paid for it after the closing. Nobody was happy.

I think we are stuck here for a while. I don’t see prices going up much in the near future and I don’t see them going down either. I don’t see interest rates going down enough to make much of a difference. I think this is just the new normal.

Two or more negatives are hard to overlook

by John Rice

Sometimes a bunch of negatives are overwhelming when you have to see them all together. This is something I learned when I bought a fixer upper house that was worn out, out-dated, and in disrepair. I was broke back then so I had to live with it for a couple of years. Man, that was rough. I remember thinking that the carpet wouldn’t look so bad if the walls weren’t so bad, and how together they really make the light fixture unbearable. I guess that is when it first hit me how 2 or more negatives seem to compound their effects when viewed in the same room.

I’ve got a listing in my pipeline that I have been working on for a little bit. In general, it just feels like a rental grade property. It has a nice floor plan and all, but just doesn’t feel like something a buyer will fall in love with. Like I have always said, a seller has more power in the deal if the house comes across as something special. The market is getting a glut of “Average” houses. Now is the time to make your house stand out.

This house already has some pluses that could easily be over looked. Things that I bet most buyers wouldn’t even remember after leaving the house if we didn’t do anything to it. So, what is the plan? We just had it painted. That will unify the space to a buyer. You have to remember that buyers are going from room to room in a 20 minute window. They like it all to be consistent. The next step is going to be replacing the vinyl flooring in the baths and kitchen. Then we’ll clean the existing carpet and stage it.

Now, when a buyer comes in this place, they will see fresh paint, clean floors, and new vinyl in the kitchen and baths. They will also probably now notice the few updated items. See, the goal is to make it the best house any buyer can get in the price range. We do not have to make it perfect, just a little better than the second best house currently for sale. After all, as long as there is one buyer out there, you know they’ll pick the best one.

What is the 2025 Spring Market Like?

by John Rice

I have no idea what the rest of the year is going to be like in real estate, but the spring 2025 market is super hot in and around Lexington Ky.

I have sold 12 houses in the past 9 weeks. I think that might be a record for me. Five have been cash purchases. Five have been in multiple offers. Two went $60,000 or more over the list price.

If you see a new listing that looks amazing, be prepared to be in multiple offers and view the list price as the starting point for any offer.

Don’t want to get in a bidding war? Well, don’t look at houses that are newly listed. Stick with the inventory of homes that have been on the market for at least a week.

I am going to take a nap now.