sell

Last nail in the coffin for the Pandemic era market

by John Rice

All throughout real estate history, we have had value differences due to location. Similar houses in the best locations got top dollar and the less desirable locations were worth less.

Except for the COVID era market.

During the pandemic, supply was so short and demand was so strong that pretty much the same house would sell for the same price regardless of things like what part of town it was in, what school district it was in, and even what condition the house was in.

This was especially true for the more affordable houses. Back then, a small 3 bedroom, 1 bath house without a garage was going for about $200k regardless of whether it was in a Grade A, Grade B or Grade C location. That was because the market was so tight that people didn’t have a choice in location. Buyers were shopping all over town, looking at any house in their price range. There were so many buyers doing this that location didn’t seem to matter much. It was about getting a house, not getting a house where you want it to be.

We’re not wearing masks. Rates aren’t 3%. That crazy market is in the past now.

Now that we are starting to see some houses staying on the market for more than a few hours, it’s back to location being important. As this happens, I think we will see the Grade A neighborhood prices remain stable. The Grade B and Grade C locations that recently had been getting the Grade A money…..well, they aren’t any longer. That is one reason we are seeing so many price reductions now. It just shows that the market is returning to normal. It isn’t crashing.

Back during the pandemic, I would have people ask me what a house was worth. I would tell them I can easily determine what it is worth, but the value and the sale price were not related for that brief time. I would tell my Buyers to view the sale price as paying what the house was worth plus a “Convenience Fee” for winning the house in multiple offers. Now that we aren’t seeing multiple offers on every single new listing, we are back to a house’s value and its sale price being the same.

Where to buy when you can’t afford the neighborhood you really want

by John Rice

Like everybody these days, I am sure you are running the numbers to see how much house you COULD have afforded when interest rates were around 3%. Quit doing that! All you are doing is making it harder to live in today’s reality of rates over 7%.

Instead of sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop so you can get that dream house in your dream neighborhood, how about still buying something that has a similar vibe but will have a cheaper mortgage payment?

If you love the Tates Creek area, and I mean the part with the 40502 zip code, and you want a house built in the middle of the last century, Lansdowne is likely your dream spot to be. And for good reason. Those giant lots and large homes have been fantastic since Day 1.

But you’re looking at financing most of the $600k to million dollar plus purchase price and your wallet says “No Bueno”. What do you do? Stay where you are and be unhappy? Keep renting and get absolutely no financial gain?

No, you look in Lans-Merik since it is right across Tates Creek Road from Lansdowne. Here you will get almost as large of a lot and the houses are mostly from the 1970s but it has a similar vibe. You will end up spending between $400k to maybe just over $600k.

$400k too much? While it is technically not in the 40502 zip code, Gainesway is literally just across New Circle Road from Lans-Merik. Here you will get a 1960s home on a larger lot in the $250-400k range.

“Are any of the offers cash?”

by John Rice

I went to an open house with a buyer client this past Sunday. We were already out looking at two other listings. This one had an open house so I thought we’d hit it rather than schedule a time to see it before or afterwards.

We got there about 5 minutes early. The realtors were not there yet and there was a line of people waiting to get in.

Once the realtors opened the house, the first thing I asked was how many offers did they have. One of the two that were there said they had 10 offers and were expecting more.

I then asked if any of them were cash. One of the realtors said “We aren’t allowed to say whether or not we do.” That isn’t exactly true in general. It could be that the seller instructed them not to disclose that type of info. If that was the case, kudos to the seller’s realtor for saying this.

But more than likely, they just didn’t want to say.

Why would they not want to say?

Because if there were any cash offers, disclosing so would deter any buyer who would be financing the purchase from making offers. What these realtors want to do is get as many offers as they can, hoping to get one with a higher price or better terms than the cash offer, then go to the realtor with the cash buyer and say “If you can match these terms from the better offers, your buyer can have the house.” Nothing at all wrong with that. They are representing their client’s best interest in doing so. It is what I would do for my sellers as well.

These two realtors were a lot of fun. I enjoyed meeting them. They didn’t know I was a realtor at first, so my response was “Don’t worry about it, I’m a realtor too and I can read between the lines.”

So yes, they did have at least one cash offer.

Should you buy that unique home you fell in love with?

by John Rice

So, you’ve found a house you’ve fallen in love with. It’s sort of out of the mainstream. Maybe it has something strange like an elevator in the bathroom or a kitchen addition shaped like an octagonal spaceship? Whatever it is, you love it and you’re wondering if you should buy it.

The answer is yes. Yes, you should buy it. A house is an investment so you want to make a good financial decision, but it is also an investment in your happiness.

However, there are some things to realize and take into consideration before you do.

The main thing you want to avoid is overpaying for it. Most houses like I am talking about tend to have limited appeal in the broader market. It can be difficult to determine the market value since it is nothing like the comparable sales in the area that a realtor or appraiser would use. It takes a bit more of a gut feeling than hard science to figure it out.

Realize that when it comes time for you to sell it, it might take longer. You’ll be waiting for somebody just like you who cherishes all its quirks and features. The good thing about this type of house is that once you find that person, they usually don’t have a back up plan. They aren’t interested in any other house on the market.

Many years ago, I had a very unique home listed. It was an old house that had been totally renovated inside. It looked old on the outside but new on the inside. It was in town but it had 3 acres and felt like a mini-farm. The primary bedroom was “Open concept.” There was no door going to the upstairs primary bedroom. You just walked up the stairs and just like that, you were IN the bedroom once you took that last step. Also totally open was the bathroom. Like, the shower and even the toilet were just sitting there visible from the top of the staircase and from any vantage point in the bedroom. It took forever to sell. The buyers said they had been looking for a long time and fell in love with this place. They had to have it. Literally probably 100 other buyers had given it a very hard pass. That is just how it goes with unique houses.

That’s all I got. Buy it right. Go in knowing it might not be easy to sell. Enjoy your stay in the house between those two points in time.

Airbnbust?

by John Rice

One of the most valuable lessons I learned from my dad is how cycles work.

I remember one of the first times I ever thought about such things was when we lived in a starter home neighborhood in Frankfort. I remember him telling me that the houses in our neighborhood would eventually get run down because everybody who buys such an entry level home only plans to stay there for a few years. You don’t do a room addition, kitchen renovation or anything when you’re thinking so short term. Forty years later, the neighborhood is pretty run down. Houses only got fixed up when the values got so low that an investor could buy them cheap enough to make a profit.

Another thing I learned about cycles is to expect them. There will be good times. There will be bad times. Most people view the good times as the norm and are shocked when bad times come.

We are there now with the short term rental market.

Over the past few years, I’ve had several clients ask me about getting into the STR (Short term rental) market. I have always been cautiously optimistic. I tell them sure, you can make some money, but have a backup plan because one day, the market will be saturated and/or demand will not be as strong. We had several things line up perfectly all at once to create the buzz for short term rentals. We had many people wanting to travel after the pandemic, we had a robust economy, and we had people eager to try using an Airbnb. I knew that would not last forever, especially with so many so eager to buy a house and use it for short term rentals.

The downside of the cycle is happening now. I am on a facebook group for real estate investors. Just about everybody is saying their bookings are waaaaaaay down compared to last year. We have several things that have lined up but none of them are good: Everybody travelled a lot after the pandemic and demand is down, we have a not-so-robust economy, and people are a little more cautious of short term rentals (Excessive fees, terrible hosts, pretty houses in scary areas, etc.)

In time, demand will pick up. Those who were merely Airbnb hobbyists will get out of the market leaving only those who view it as a serious business. This is part of a cycle too.

So what’s my advice to anybody wanting to buy real estate for STRs? Have a backup plan. Make sure the numbers also work as a long term rentals. Be ready to pivot when needed. Buy a property that is a good investment. Don’t buy a terrible house in a slummy neighborhood where the only desirable feature would be your trendy decor. Have an exit plan because one day you will be as excited to sell your property as you were the day you bought it.