Sales are down this year…….so what?

I read in the business section recently that sales are down for the 1st quarter of 2009 compared to the 1st quarter of 2008.  So?

Why does this not really bother me?  Why do I not think the market is bad?  You can blame it all on my dad.  See, he always taught me to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges and to put things into perspective.

Check out the number of sale per year over the past 10 years.  These numbers represent all the single family residential MLS sales in the area.

1998-6476 Sales  (Apple)

1999-6454 Sales  (Apple)

2000-6371 Sales  (Apple)

2001-7054 Sales  (Orange)

2002-7482 Sales  (Orange)

2003-8615 Sales  (Orange)

2004-9272 Sales  (BIG Orange)

2005-10,333 Sales  (Giant Orange)

2006-9918 Sales  (Orange)

2007-8855 Sales  (Orange)

2008-7585 Sales  (An Apple, but a big one!)

2009- Don’t know yet, but if it is over 6000 it will be an apple.

You know, what happened was that we all got so use to mind blowing sales increases and more buyers than sellers that we forgot that selling over 7500 houses last year is still pretty good.  Remember 2002?  All the excitement about having just increased sales by 20% over the 2000 numbers?  Well, we are STILL above that now!!

My prediction is that sales will level out to where they would have been had the easy lending of a few years ago  not happened.  There are also fewer houses for sale these days after peaking in 2007.  Once the number of listings drops some more, we will start to see some  appreciation again.

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