Uncategorized

What happens when Lexington runs out of space?

by John Rice

Want to know what I am thinking about?  Land.  That’s right, how much of it we have left in Fayette County and what it means when we run out.

Lexington has an Urban Service area, which is the land available for development…..it’s like our version of what other towns call their “City Limits.”

Short of expanding it, we will run out soon.  Now, I am sure the city will reluctantly expand it a little, but we don’t really have much space left.  Period.  We are already to Jessamine County on the south.  We have giant horse farms to the east and west.  These are farms owned by people who don’t need money.  Even if they decided to sell, it just would not be profitable to develop.  Plus, many farms sold off their property development rights, aka PDR, to the city.  That means they will always be farms.  Anything outside the urban service area cannot be subdivided into anything less than 40 acres.

About all we have left is out towards Georgetown and Winchester Road.  After that it is infill.  After than we will probably see more construction in adjoining towns, giving Lexington “Real” suburbs.

So what will happen at that point?  Prices in Lexington will go up.  Neighborhoods/locations that have been less than desirable will become more desirable.  We’ll see many older neighborhoods renewed since people will be happy to live somewhere in Fayette County.  We’ll see more additions and remodeling too.

Lexington will continue to grow, like it or not.  It is just too pretty of a town to not.  It has enough large employers that it will always be the commercial center of this half of the state.  Many people go to college here and never leave.  Truth.

Think of it in these terms…..the 40502 zip code has always been the most desirable part of Lexington.  There really are no bad areas of 40502.  Kenwick was the armpit of 40502 until about the mid 90’s.  That neighborhood still has a long way to go in the very back, but it is getting there quickly.   People want to live there for its location.  Same thing will happen all over Lexington eventually.  Many neighborhoods that people are not interested in today will go up a notch or two in desirability as living anywhere in Lexington becomes more desirable than commuting from a surrounding town.  As prices in 1st choice neighborhoods go up due to demand, that will push buyers to their 2nd choice neighborhoods.  Rinse.  Wash.  Repeat.  The values of the 2nd choice neighborhoods will go up, pushing buyers down another ring.  At that point many will have to pick between living in Lexington or being in Nicholasville, Winchester or Georgetown.  Those are the surrounding towns that I think will grow the most as we run out of space.

It’s a HOT market…..for some sellers

by John Rice

Would you believe about 1/3 of the pending sales since February 2015 sold in less than 20 days?

I broke it down by price range:

$100-150k…..32% sold in less than 20 days!

$150-200k…..31% sold in less than 20 days!

$200-300k…..39% sold in less than 20 days!

$300-400k…..41% sold in less than 20 days!

$400-500k….55% sold in less than 20 days!

$500-$1mil…38% sold in less than 20 days!

It’s a hot market if you have an attractive house that is priced appropriately.  It’s not if you don’t.

NOW is the time to get into Lansdowne Merrick

by John Rice

Pepperhill

Lansdowne-Merrick.  Kind of reminds me of Kenwick in a way.  I mean, here are two neighborhoods that have an awesome location and have been the bargain of the 40502 zip code.  Kenwick was underpriced all the way up until the late 90’s.  It has arrived.  Lansdowne-Merrick on the other hand, is about to arrive.

What makes this neighborhood so right?  The location.  Just like Kenwick, it is surrounded by super desirable neighborhoods costing much more.  Check out a map and you’ll see what I am talking about.  You’ve got Lansdowne Estates and the Glendover area just across Tates Creek Road.  Across Alumni Drive is Turkey Foot and Lakewood.  Warrenton Woods is right beside you.  Castlegate is across Chinoe Road.  Oh, and you have a large park and elementary school in the neighborhood too.  Throw in being 5 minutes to The Lansdowne Shoppes, Chinoe Shopping Center and the Romany Road area, and you can see how you are getting the 40502 lifestyle everybody wants for half price.  I’ve always considered this neighborhood to be the “Lite” version of Turkey Foot.

This is a 70’s neighborhood.  You get some ranches, 2 story houses, a few split foyers.  You will see some wood sided contemporary homes too.  Most range from 1800 square feet to 2500 square feet.  Some have basements.  Some have finished basements that would add to that square footage.

The value range is mostly $200-300k.  Towards the lower end, you’ll get a solid house that may need some updating.  On the higher end, you should expect either a nicely updated house or a larger one with a basement.

I have been saying for a long time that this place will pop like Kenwick did.  I’ve noticed a few super updated houses on the market lately.  Today, I saw this house that is undergoing an extensive renovation.  They are blowing out the back of the roof to add more space.  When you start seeing this, you know it is a good time to get in the neighborhood.  You just cannot beat this location.  As prices in surrounding neighborhoods have gone up, this is the last undervalued spot to be in 40502.

Other neighborhoods on my watch list:  Meadowthorpe, Idle Hour and the front part of Gaineway.

Why I love Facebook

by John Rice

I love Facebook.  I woke up this morning, a little late, and the first thing in my feed is a picture of some friends/clients with their new baby.  The post said “Home for the first time.”  I helped them pick that house.  Buy it right.  Get any repairs it needed done.  Now it is their home and they will always remember this house as being the place they brought their little girl too after leaving the hospital.

One of the best parts of my job is seeing my clients live in their home once we have closed.  I love to see little kids grow up in their homes.  I love it when people post pictures of a room they just painted or decorated.  Or a picture of their kid holding some award or good report card while standing in the kitchen.  Or people watching a UK game on a TV that my client didn’t think would fit over the fireplace.

Then one day, they call me back.  Time to find the next home and leave this one.  That is when all my guidance returns.  When I do my job right, my clients should have a house that held it’s value and should be easy to sell.  It is an investment.  There is a practical side to this process, and it is my job to make sure that I take care of all that so my people can just enjoy living in their home.

 

THE MILLENNIALS ARE COMING!!

by John Rice

All the real estate talk these days is about the millennials.  Nobody has been made more aware that somebody is coming since Paul Revere.

But you know what?  Like most news, it follows what has already happened.  The millennials have been in the housing market for a few years now.  They are not coming, they are here.  Last year, between clients I represented as buyers and those who bought my listings, I had 26 deals with millennials.

All the training in real estate is how to attract millennials.  Things they like.  Things they don’t like.  How they think.  What to expect from them.  If we made such generalities about any other demographic, it would probably be a crime.

The Guru’s who get paid big money to teach at seminars or write articles say that this demographic prefers to text and will do a lot of research online.  They are very comfortable with technology.  Well, sooooo are most people these days.  That is not news.

Want to know what I have noticed about Millennials?  They are people.  They are people who want to buy or sell a house.  They don’t want to be defined by stereotypes and generalities any more than I did as a first time Generation X buyer.

I’m not saying there are not some changes generation to generation, just saying that they want the same things from a realtor people have always wanted:  They want us to know our business, know neighborhoods, know how to interpret information, how to give good advice and to be available to answer their questions.  They want us to care about what we are doing and their needs.

And I think the biggest difference between the millennials and past generations is that if we don’t deliver that, they will move on without us.   So, my advice to other agents is to spend your time becoming a better agent and less time treating them as a new species.