real estate

Airbnbust?

by John Rice

One of the most valuable lessons I learned from my dad is how cycles work.

I remember one of the first times I ever thought about such things was when we lived in a starter home neighborhood in Frankfort. I remember him telling me that the houses in our neighborhood would eventually get run down because everybody who buys such an entry level home only plans to stay there for a few years. You don’t do a room addition, kitchen renovation or anything when you’re thinking so short term. Forty years later, the neighborhood is pretty run down. Houses only got fixed up when the values got so low that an investor could buy them cheap enough to make a profit.

Another thing I learned about cycles is to expect them. There will be good times. There will be bad times. Most people view the good times as the norm and are shocked when bad times come.

We are there now with the short term rental market.

Over the past few years, I’ve had several clients ask me about getting into the STR (Short term rental) market. I have always been cautiously optimistic. I tell them sure, you can make some money, but have a backup plan because one day, the market will be saturated and/or demand will not be as strong. We had several things line up perfectly all at once to create the buzz for short term rentals. We had many people wanting to travel after the pandemic, we had a robust economy, and we had people eager to try using an Airbnb. I knew that would not last forever, especially with so many so eager to buy a house and use it for short term rentals.

The downside of the cycle is happening now. I am on a facebook group for real estate investors. Just about everybody is saying their bookings are waaaaaaay down compared to last year. We have several things that have lined up but none of them are good: Everybody travelled a lot after the pandemic and demand is down, we have a not-so-robust economy, and people are a little more cautious of short term rentals (Excessive fees, terrible hosts, pretty houses in scary areas, etc.)

In time, demand will pick up. Those who were merely Airbnb hobbyists will get out of the market leaving only those who view it as a serious business. This is part of a cycle too.

So what’s my advice to anybody wanting to buy real estate for STRs? Have a backup plan. Make sure the numbers also work as a long term rentals. Be ready to pivot when needed. Buy a property that is a good investment. Don’t buy a terrible house in a slummy neighborhood where the only desirable feature would be your trendy decor. Have an exit plan because one day you will be as excited to sell your property as you were the day you bought it.

What to do when you’ve gotta sell your old house first

by John Rice

I feel for people in this situation. I mean, the market is so tough right now. Even buyers who do NOT have to sell their old house before buying their next one are struggling to be competitive in multiple offers.

The odds of you finding a seller who will work with you when they have other offers without a similar contingency are equal to winning the lottery. Hoping for the best isn’t realistic. Here are some not so fun options that will ultimately end up with you getting your next home.

  1. List your house. Sell it. Pack up. Move out. Rent or stay somewhere short term until the house you want hits the market. Then buy it. This gets you where you wanted to be, the only negative is that you will end up moving twice.
  2. List your house. Sell it. Only take offers from buyers who will let you rent back after the closing. Then begin your search and only move once. Most buyers will give you maaaaybe 30-60 days after closing before they will want to be able to move into their new home. This allows you to buy something but you’re under pressure to find and close one within that time period. If you can’t, you’ll have to move out and stay somewhere short term.
  3. Only look at houses that have been on the market for more than about a week. Often these are the less desirable homes since the rush of buyers who saw it when it was a hot new listing decided they didn’t want it. The beauty of this plan is that you only move once and likely are not competing at all with other buyers. This is a good thing. A seller who only has one offer is much more likely to accept a contingency offer than one who has better choices.

So there you go. None of these are exciting. All are a lot of work. But they are real solutions to today’s real estate issues.

Always make this your first priority when picking a house

by John Rice

Let’s face it, most houses in any price range are all pretty similar. It is rare in Lexington to get something unique in the sense of a feature or design that is different from anything else. We have old houses that mostly have the same character from the time period they were built. We have new houses with their open floor plans. We have updated houses. We have outdated houses. We mostly have houses with average lots. We also have houses with less than average lots. Basically you can pick what part of town you want, what age house you want, whether you have to have it updated or not and just like that, you’ll find about every house that makes your list is pretty darn similar to every other house on your list.

While this isn’t necessarily a bad think, it can make your house harder to sell whenever the market softens……which right now appears will never happen.

Tastes change. Things go out of style. The 90s saw a bread drawer in the corner of every kitchen plus a built in desk. Cherry cabinets were the rage. It won’t be all too long before white shaker cabinets and shiplap will become negatives to buyers rather than something that makes them want the house.

What should you do to make your house be among the best when you go to sell it? The best thing to do is pick a good lot. Why? It never goes out of style and never needs updating.

I recently sold a townhouse in a nice complex on the edge of downtown. The location is great and always will be. The thing is that about half the units are totally identical to each other. The one I sold was an end unit. That means you only share a wall with one neighbor. It also gives you windows on the other side. This unit backed to the houses in a historic neighborhood. You looked out your rear windows and saw trees and grass with the neighboring houses far away. The other units all backed to each other. This unit was on the edge of the complex. It had some greenspace across the street out front. All the others faced other units. There was plenty of guest parking and since it was on the edge of the complex, it is the least likely to be used. This was the best lot in the entire complex.

I told my buyers to picture it is 2008 all over again. They decide to sell when there are 15 other identical units for sale at the same time. Which unit is that one buyer in the market going to pick? Their unit, because the lot will never go out of style and never need updating.

$30k over list and STILL wasn’t the best offer??

by John Rice

Yesterday was sort of a bummer.

It began with a sale falling apart. My buyers had a contingency contract on a house since they needed to sell their old one first. Somebody else came along without a contingency and kicked them out. Time to start all over.

Then late last night, I found out that another buyer did not get a house on which we had submitted an offer. We went $30,000 over the list price, which was close to 10% over list. There were 22 offers on that house. My poor buyers will likely be competing with those other 20 buyers who didn’t get the house on the next new listing in their price range.

I did at least get one of my listings sold for $5000 over the list price.

It’s shaping up to be another crazy year in real estate. It’s a tough market. It’s tough for everybody except the sellers.

Two deals: BuyerZilla & One of the best sellers ever

by John Rice

I have always said that during a real estate transaction, you either see people at their best or their worst.

It is a stressful thing to do. So many details. Such a big change in the lives of both the buyer and seller. It is something most people do 4-5 times in their life so it isn’t like this is anything anybody will ever get used to doing.

I’ve got two deals right now where I am seeing somebody at their best and at their worst.

I have a listing where the buyer is clearly at their worst. They are making things a little difficult for their own realtor, the seller and me as the listing realtor. The funny thing is that I don’t know why? Due to the slowdown in the market last fall, there were not enough comparable sales for this higher priced home in a small town outside of Lexington. The house appraised for $14k less than the contract price. My seller agreed to lower their price. Then the buyer hit us with a pretty big repair list. We agreed to all but one item which happened to be the easiest one on the whole list. They threw a fit. One of the items was to repair a roof leak around the chimney. This was perfectly acceptable to ask for and the seller committed to getting it done. My seller turned it into his insurance. While the insurance company rejected the claim, they did agree to replace the whole roof at a cost of over $24k. He has to pay out of pocket for the chimney repair however. We asked the buyer to chip in a little bit towards the new roof (which my seller had no obligation to do) and they threatened to walk away from the sale. While they were under no obligation to help, one would have thought that having gotten the house for $14k less than the price they offered AND getting a whole brand new roof worth $24k would have made any buyer feel like they had won the lottery. It appears this buyer somehow feels like it was all owed to them.

The other deal is a property some long time good friends are buying. We were set to close today after waiting for the seller to get a new hvac part installed. It got installed and we all thought things were good. The person who installed this part went back yesterday to check on it and turns out that the gas furnace is now producing too much carbon monoxide. When faced with the choice of not telling us and closing today as planned or disclosing this, they chose to let the us know. Their HVAC person’s solution was to install a new furnace. They seller offered to split the cost with the buyers, who immediately said yes because who wouldn’t want a brand new furnace for half price, right? We decided to postpone the closing until the new furnace is installed and the carbon monoxide level is checked again. Had this seller chose the option of not letting us know, it would have cost my buyers more money and could have cost them even more since they would be sleeping in a house with high carbon monoxide levels. This seller did the right thing. I told the seller’s realtor how much I appreciated their honesty and that I was definitely seeing the sellers at their very best.

I am always inspired when I see a buyer or seller at their best, I just wish it happened every time.