When will there be more houses for sale?

The simplest answer to this is when sellers feel like moving…..so I guess it boils down to what will it take for that to happen?

Many people who have been in their houses for more than 5 years either got a super low interest rate or refinanced to get one.  It is hard to give up something like a 3.5% rate and buy your next house at the top of the market and do a 5% mortgage.  Right now, all that free equity from appreciation isn’t enough to make somebody want to give that up.

But, eventually there will be a tipping point.

Let’s say you bought a house 5 years ago for $200k.  You put down 5% and got a 3.5% rate for 30 years.  The principal and interest part of your loan is about $900 a month.  Flash forward to today.  The house is probably worth $240k.    You owe about $173k on it and have about $67k in equity.

You decide you want to buy a $300k house.  You finance about $235k after you get the equity out of your last house.  You get a 5% rate.  The principal and interest part of your loan is now $1200 a month.

Maybe you don’t want to spend $300 more each month?

What will it take to make you list your old house?

Maybe another $40k equity in your old house?  Assuming rates stay about the same and the price of the $300k house you want appreciates less than the $240k house you have, this $40k is what it will take to keep your payment about the same each month.  It will take about 3 years for that to happen between appreciation and what you are paying down each month in principal.

We all bemoan higher interest rates, but lets keep in mind that the reason we don’t like higher rates is because they make the mortgage payments higher.  People have a certain amount they can/will spend each month on housing.  People will always try to stuff as much house into that payment as they can.  I think the day sellers can move up to a nicer house and not pay that much more will be when we see more for sale signs in yards.

It’s like the most boring baseball game ever

I have always said that first time buyers grease the real estate market.  Not that I’ve played much baseball since I was a kid, but I always pictured the market this way:  The bases are loaded with people who needed to buy and sell, then a first time buyer hits a home run and lets everybody else move.  Being the person who didn’t have anything to sell kept the market moving.

That wonderful analogy that I have been using my entire career doesn’t work any more.

First time buyers are struggling to get a house.  The person on first base can’t find their second base house, the second base person can’t find their third base house, etc.  They know selling their old house will be easy, but they dread the thought of being a buyer right now.  So they stay put….and that first time buyer keeps striking out.

Now that I think about it, being a realtor feels just like when I went on a 7th grade field trip to see the Reds play.  There was a lot of waiting for something to happen, and then a brief moment of excitement.  That is how the market is today.  A lot of waiting.  A lot of checking for new listings.  A lot of networking to find houses not on the market yet.  Then when a house that meets your buyer’s criteria hits the market, a lot of excitement.

Where are you going to find anything better for that price?

I remember the day.

I was in a two week class for new agents.  One of those days the topic was CMAs.  That stands for Comparative Market Analysis.  It was how to figure out what a house is worth based on recent sales of similar houses.

Long story short, you start with the subject house.  If a comparable recent sale was better than the subject house, you deducted money from that sale price.  If the comparable recent sale was inferior, you added money to the sale price.  In the end, you had a bunch of debits and credits for the differences that you either subtracted or added to the sale price of the recent sales….. and then you know what the subject house is worth in comparison to the recent sales.

Very logical.  This is how it has been done for years.  This is how appraisers do it too.

In that class, one of the other newbie realtors asked how it was done before CMAs became the standard.  The teacher said that you just guessed a value.

I sort of feel like we are back to the guessing days now.

I’ve seen recently remodeled houses sell for up to 50% more than what the second highest sale price was in the neighborhood.  Granted, a remodeled house SHOULD sell for more than the average house, but not by 50%.

I sold a house for $160k.  The comps pointed to it being worth about $143k.  We got several offers between $137k and $143k…..then we got one for $160k.  That is $17k MORE than the second highest offer.  Those buyers were desperate.  They had lost several bidding wars and were not going to lose again.

There’s definitely been a shift in how we calculate value, and it appears that it has less to do with logically analyzing recent sales and more to do with it being a tight market.  Something I hear buyers and agents say a lot these days is “Where are you going to find anything better for that price?”  So, value is now determined by availability, just like the lobster prices at a restaurant.  A good day on the water might end up with lower lobster prices.  The very next day the fishermen aren’t as lucky and you pay more for the exact same dinner.  That is sort of scary to me because what happens when the market slows a little and there are more houses for sale?

 

 

 

How a hot market really sucks

As I was driving home today after a closing, I got to thinking about how the market is always  changing.

When I got into this, it was much like today.  Buyers felt lucky just to get a house and sellers were drunk with power.

Then there was the looming threat of a nationwide crisis.  We were convinced it wouldn’t  make it to Kentucky.  We all said things like “We didn’t see the crazy appreciation like California, Arizona or Florida did, so we won’t see any changes.”  Only we said that with the same fear in our voices as the kids from that Stephen King movie when they talked about Pennywise the clown.

Then “IT” happened. (See what I did there?)

It slowly went from being a seller’s market to a buyer’s market.

Nobody was happy.

Seller’s were bringing cash to the closing to payoff their houses.  Buyers were afraid their new house would continue to depreciate.  Buyers were hitting sellers up with big repair lists.  They felt the seller should just appreciate that they picked their house among the other 50 houses in the neighborhood for sale.

Then in late 2012/early 2013 we had this euphoric time.  Sellers were happy because their houses were selling in less than 6 to 12 months.  Buyers were happy because prices had stabilized.  Sellers were okay to do whatever repairs were requested since they were happy to have sold their house.  Buyers weren’t asking for as many repairs since they were happy too.  They knew the house wouldn’t be worth less by the time of the closing.  It was great!

Only it didn’t last.

Prices started going up.  Fewer houses were on the market.

Prices kept going up.  Even fewer houses were on the market.

Prices went up even more.  And even fewer houses were on the market.

And now we are back to where we were when I started, only a little worse.  Prices are sky high.  Buyers resent it but know they have to pay the price.  So, they are hitting up the sellers with big repair lists.  Sellers feel like they are doing a favor to the buyer just by accepting their offer.  They don’t want to do repairs.

Basically, nobody is happy right now.

It was fun to be me this week

I kind of like the crazy days.

It’s been a busy week for me.  I’ve sold 3 houses, have 9 pending sales, and have been out with several new buyers.

This time of year always reminds me of that scene in Bambi where all the animals come out on the first day of spring.  I’m meeting new people and seeing old friends.  The days are getting longer and I am close to being back in shorts.

 

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Many of my past clients are calling to say they are thinking of moving.  Several of my past clients and friends have referred their friends or family to me.

I had one especially busy day this week.

I had to show a new construction home to a friend who has used me 3 times so far.  There was not a lockbox on the model home, so I had to find another model home with the same key, then return that key after the showing.

Then I had to rush to Winchester to see a house a friend and past client may sell.  It was out in the country in a beautiful setting.  I took my little M Roadster.  Back roads from Masterson Station to deep in Clark Co.  Lots of fun.

The whole time I was at that house, my phone was going crazy with texts and calls.  One was an agent telling me she was sending an offer on a listing of mine.  I already had an offer so I had to tell the other agent we were getting a new offer.

I check my email before pulling out of their driveway.  17 emails.  One was a new client who was referred to me from her daughter, who has used me a couple of times.  They were ready to make an offer on a house I had shown them in Clark Co the day before.

It was already well past dinner time and I had to get some work done, so I did the only thing that made sense.  I got a pizza and ate it in my car while I returned calls, texts, and emails.

 

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I’ve never eaten pizza in the dark, nor in such a small car.  All I can say is that I am glad the interior is black and I was wearing a red shirt.

I got home, wrote the offer for the Clark Co property, worked on the offers for my new listing, and finally got done about 10:PM.

This weekend looks pretty calm since I crammed about 3 days worth of work into that one day.  Saturday is Cars and Coffee, then Sunday I am going for a long drive in the country with some other car enthusiast friends.

The busy days make the not so busy days even better.

Glad it is almost spring!