lexington news

How to find out what Lexington is REALLY like?

by John Rice

Somebody who may be moving to Lexington asked what all places he should visit to get a vibe for the town.  Naturally, some replied places like Keeneland, The Horse Park, Ashland, etc as.  All the places that most people who live in Lex never really go to.  I piped in that if he really wants to get a vibe for what Lex is like, he should go to Wal-Mart, a grocery store and drive around New Circle.

I mean, think about it.  If you are trying to decide if a town is right for you, shouldn’t you go to the same places that you spend most of your time going to wherever you now live?  All those places I mentioned are nice, and surely help define Lex, but I wouldn’t move here because of them, and I am probably not going to get a feel for how I’m going to fit in here either.

So, I figure most people are like me.  You go to the bank, the grocery store, do some shopping, some eating out, deal with traffic.  I think those are the things that will either make your life better or worse since you use them daily.  I drive by Ashland (The home of Henry Clay) everyday.  I would gladly trade that to be 5 minutes closer to my kid’s school!

I do a lot of work for people relocating here.  When I first starting getting all these people, I had these visions about driving them around, pointing out things like Triangle Park, explaining that the grass field in the middle of downtown might someday be called Center Point, a quick tour of UK’s campus, etc.  But just about all of them want to roll up their sleeves and see the neighborhoods where they may be living.  (If you want the tour, just ask or it!)

My advice to anybody would be to first decide what type of neighborhood you want to be in:  Older?  Newer?  Urban?  Suburban?  Which is more important, being close to work or activities?  What activities do you think you’ll end up doing?  Want to be close to a park?  Your kid’s school?  How much drive time can you handle without going crazy?  Once you answer a few questions like that, it gets easy for somebody who really knows Lex to narrow down a few parts of town that would work for you.

Sales are down this year…….so what?

by John Rice

I read in the business section recently that sales are down for the 1st quarter of 2009 compared to the 1st quarter of 2008.  So?

Why does this not really bother me?  Why do I not think the market is bad?  You can blame it all on my dad.  See, he always taught me to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges and to put things into perspective.

Check out the number of sale per year over the past 10 years.  These numbers represent all the single family residential MLS sales in the area.

1998-6476 Sales  (Apple)

1999-6454 Sales  (Apple)

2000-6371 Sales  (Apple)

2001-7054 Sales  (Orange)

2002-7482 Sales  (Orange)

2003-8615 Sales  (Orange)

2004-9272 Sales  (BIG Orange)

2005-10,333 Sales  (Giant Orange)

2006-9918 Sales  (Orange)

2007-8855 Sales  (Orange)

2008-7585 Sales  (An Apple, but a big one!)

2009- Don’t know yet, but if it is over 6000 it will be an apple.

You know, what happened was that we all got so use to mind blowing sales increases and more buyers than sellers that we forgot that selling over 7500 houses last year is still pretty good.  Remember 2002?  All the excitement about having just increased sales by 20% over the 2000 numbers?  Well, we are STILL above that now!!

My prediction is that sales will level out to where they would have been had the easy lending of a few years ago  not happened.  There are also fewer houses for sale these days after peaking in 2007.  Once the number of listings drops some more, we will start to see some  appreciation again.

The Half Million Dollar Surprise

by John Rice

I have a client that is interested in a $490,000 house.  I called to schedule the showing today.  I was totally floored that not only is the place already under contract, but there are several other people who are “in line” if the contract were to fall apart.

This house has been on the market for over a year.  It is in northern Jessamine County where the market is flooded with houses over $500k. 

It just goes to show that as long as there is a market at all, the best houses for the money will always sell, even at this price point!

Random thoughts on a busy week

by John Rice

Whew!  I have been on the go with 3 buyers lately and a few people that maaaaaay do something sooner or later.  I haven’t been home much at night or on the weekends.  I miss seeing my kids and wife, but I am glad to have the work!

I have had 2 big disappointments this week.  I found the PERFECT house for one of my buyers.  I mean perfect.  The area, size, layout and everything was just perfect!  It had hardwood floors in the main rooms, new carpet in the bedrooms, slate in the kitchen, and all the lighting and hardware had been updated.  I call the agent to tell her that it looks like an offer is coming.  She tells me that they just sold the place a few hours earlier.

Here is one house out of about 200 in its price range in Lexington and 2 people want it.  Can you blame them after my description.  It just goes to show that THE BEST house in any price range will sell.  My gut is that of the 200 or so houses in this price range, more than half are ones that NOBODY wants.  Yet, they are there and make the market look worse than it is.

The next house was totally awesome for under $100k.  The listing agent was new.   This was his 1st listing.  He under priced it by maybe as much as $7000.  Anyway, he told me it had a “Kickout Clause” .  That means that if the seller likes my offer better, the other buyer has a given amount of time to remove a contingency.  As it turns out, the wording on the other offer for the kickout clause was so vague, nobody knew what it meant?  The time to figure that out would have been BEFORE they accepted it, but hey.  My buyer ended up walking away in frustration.  The new agent didn’t have the experience to advise/guide his client with any more than textbook theory.  Oh well!  We found her another house that I think will be good for her, but it isn’t as nice as that one was.

I also got a contract on one of my listings this weekend.  I am totally stoked about it too!  This house is in a neighborhood where the builder is still building and about every 4th house is on the market.  To make matters worse, right after I listed it, an IDENTICAL house came on the market just 3 doors up the road…….FOR $5000 LESS!!!!  Well, I guess this is where marketing and staging comes into play.  I worked with my sellers (who are great BTW) to thin things out, arrange furniture, etc.  I had my totally awesome extrememly talanted (yeah, I am talking about you Shaun) photographer come out.  I know that when people are considering a house, they go back home and keep looking at the pictures as they make up their mind.  That is another benefit of having such nice pictures and marketing remarks that evoke an emotional connection to the place.  Don’t believe me?  Well here is what most agents do:  “Great 3 bedroom house in move in condition conveniently located.  AND THE DISHWASHER IS NEW!!!”  See?  Did that do anything for you?  I didn’t think so!

Well, that is my week so far…………..

Howz the market in Lex?

by John Rice

You’d never know it by the headlines, but the market here in Lex is really picking up.  Maybe it is interest rates being low.  Maybe people were waiting until after the election.  Maybe we are all desensitized to the economy.  Maybe there are just fewer agents this year to take care of all the sales.  I don’t know what did it, but every agent I know is pretty busy.  I know I have really picked up in the past few weeks. 

Now I know everybody expects a realtor to always say now is a good time to buy or sell.  I usually avoid riding that wagon since I know people take it with a grain of salt. BUT, now really is a good time to do something.

My thinking on this is that right now is near the bottom…….at least locally.  I think that years from now we will look back and see that THIS would have been a good time to make a move.  Prices are all about supply and demand.  New construction has been way way down in the Bluegrass for a couple of years.  There is less on the market right now than in the recent past.  (So there is what is happening in the Supply Side.)  Interest Rates are extremely low.  People ARE coming out.  Sales are happening.  (There is the Demand Side.)  Put all that together and it sure sounds like times are improving! 

Oh yeah.  Don’t be alarmed when you see in the paper that sales in 2008 were down from 2007.  As a consumer, what you care most about is supply and demand, which shows in how many months of inventory there is.  Right now, there is about a 5-6 month supply of houses under $250,000.  Over that, there is more.  6 months is considered a balanced market.  As long as supply and demand are in balance, prices are stable.  Realtors are the ones that are the losers when sales slip. 

I hope I have explained all this in a way that sheds some Truth and reality to the old “Now’s a great time to buy” pitch.