downtown Lexington

Does spending more get you more?

by John Rice

I’ve always been into two things: Houses and cars.

There are a lot of luxury cars out there that are really just blinged out versions of cheaper cars. Cadillac Escalade? At its core, it is a Chevy Pickup truck…….sorry if you have one and I have insulted you. Lexus TX? It is a better looking Toyota Highlander. Nothing wrong with these companies doing this. It is an economy of scale to be able to sell essentially the same thing to buyers in different socioeconomic classes. They add a few features and make it look better for a lot more money, but all the important stuff is shared with their cheaper platform mates.

Now that you’ve got the concept of today’s blog post, let’s see how it relates to houses.

I showed a house to a client today. It was in a very Toyota Highlander neighborhood. It was close to 3500 square feet with a basement. Great location. Great school district.

I told my client I thought this $484k house was a great value. Why? Because if you spend $100k more, you wouldn’t really get a bigger or better house, you might just get brick on all four sides and be in a more Lexus TX neighborhood.

Sometimes spending more doesn’t really get you much more.

Selling a house is like middle school gym class

by John Rice

I was that kid in middle school that was always picked last in gym class. You know the drill. Two team Captains (Buyers) pick their team (Houses) until there is only one left and that person gets picked by default. Don’t feel bad for me though…….I’m sure the past 40 years has been better for me than for most of those picked before me.

The real estate market is very similar to what we’ve all experienced in gym class. Buyers organize the houses in order of preference. Naturally, they are most interested in move-in ready houses that are priced right. Then they move down the list to those that are less desirable.  Sellers want to be picked sooner rather than later. Think “Days on Market.”

Once the Captains are chosen, that is like the beginning of the house hunting season. The Captains pick those they think will be the best. Once those kids are on a team, they are “Sold” and not available anymore. All a Captain can do is pick the most desirable kid from what is left. Once the best one has been picked, the second best one becomes the new best choice. That is until it was just me standing there and the Captain says my name with the enthusiasm as if he had just heard the cafeteria was serving goulash for lunch.

Right now, we are in the time of year where not many new listings are hitting the market. It’s kind of like when there are only about 6 kids left from the whole class. These are the ones that maybe nobody really wants, but the next kid that gets picked is going to be the best of those that are left. There are many sellers right now with average to below average houses that will get contracts simply because there are no better choices for a buyer right now. I always say that fall is the best time to get rid of  house that nobody has wanted all spring and summer, which I guess is my whole point.

 On a side note, the only time I ever got picked any higher than dead last was when it was for volleyball. See, I am left-handed. When I serve, the ball always goes on the opposite side of the court from where it lands when most people serve. Everybody on the other team was always caught off guard. Nobody ever noticed the pattern of where the ball would go when I served. Come to think of it, that is one of the first times I ever realized the benefit of zigging when most people zag and zagging when most people zig.

Selling? What you like doesn’t matter

by John Rice

A long time ago, my wife decided she wanted a Subaru Outback. We looked at a few on used car lots. I did a lot of research to find out what trim level we had to get for her to have the sunroof and heated leather seats that she wanted. There really weren’t a lot of used Outbacks in or around Lexington at that time. This was so long ago that I found a classified ad in a newspaper that said “2008 Subaru Outback, SI Drive” with the price and the seller’s phone number. That was it. Not a lot of info to work with. Definitely nothing to make the guy’s phone start ringing. But to me, this car having SI Drive told me a whole lot more about it. Having done the research, I knew that was only offered on the top trim level. It had the giant sunroof, heated leather seats, and the bigger engine. When we went to see the car, the seller kept talking about the SI Drive. I could tell it was very important to him.

A lot of home sellers are like that too. They want to focus on what is important to them when selling their house, rather than focusing on things that are important to the buyer. I see it a lot in the marketing material of For Sale by Owner listings. I once read a flyer where the seller spent a lot of space talking about how level the sidewalks are.

About this same time, I sold a house to a family that I have since become friends with. They found the house by driving around the neighborhood. They would have never come to see it if they had only seen it online. Why? Because of the marketing remarks. Instead of mentioning the hardwood floors, instead of mentioning that one of the upstairs bedrooms was huge, or that there were bedrooms on both levels of the house, or that the backyard was an awesome park-like oasis, the realtor used that space to tell you that the exterior was maintenance free, that the curtains stayed with the house, and that there was an allowance for water-proofing the basement as well as mitigating radon. The marketing remarks could only have been better if they said  “Must see! You get to keep the seller’s curtains AND fix some major problems with this house, but at least you’ll never have to paint the outside!! NOT a drive by!”

The hardest thing about real estate is getting sellers to think like a buyer and a buyer to think like a seller. I think if that ever were to happen, I’d probably be out of a job! Being a realtor these days is as much about mediation, negotiation and understanding differing perspectives as it is about houses.

BTW, “SI Drive” is a feature that has 3 settings for throttle response and transmission shift points.

The market is changing

by John Rice

No doubt, there has been a shift this year.

Few sellers have to move. Most just want to. None of them are excited about being a buyer if they need to finance their next home. They don’t want to give up their very low interest rate they got during COVID. They are upset that they can no longer expect to sell their house the first day on the market, get above list price, and the buyer waive a home inspection.

Buyers are only buying if they really need to move. They don’t like the combination of high prices and high interest rates. They have more choices and power in the transaction than ever, but they can’t see the forest for the trees.

First time buyers account for the lowest percentage of buyers in forever. Most first time buyers seem to want to skip the small, boring most affordable houses and rent until they can afford what we used to call the “Move up” house. This is leaving most houses under $250k to investors. Almost every super affordable house I have sold this year has been purchased by an investor. Even in multiple offers, they are easier to work with and will often pay the most for a house.

Basically nobody is happy.

This is the first time in my 20 year career of seeing such pessimism from both sellers and buyers in a fairly good market. The only other time I have seen both parties this discouraged is during the Great Recession. It was an extreme Buyer’s Market so sellers were unhappy. Buyers were worried their house would be worth less than they paid for it after the closing. Nobody was happy.

I think we are stuck here for a while. I don’t see prices going up much in the near future and I don’t see them going down either. I don’t see interest rates going down enough to make much of a difference. I think this is just the new normal.

OK to take a contingency offer?

by John Rice

Well, I don’t really like to do it. Sure, an offer without that type of contingency is better, but there is a good side to this type of contract. Guess what it is? The buyer will typically pay you more with a contingency to sell or close their old house than a regular buyer will without that contingency.

I see it all the time. A buyer with a house to sell or close gets really nervous about not knowing where they will be living. They are desperate to find a house and will pay top dollar for the mental peace of knowing where they are going to land.

The bummer part is if the deal on their old house falls apart, so does your deal. There is an upside though, and it is the home inspection. If the inspection goes okay on the buyer’s old house, it typically means it will too on your house. Short of some catastrophic issue, a buyer will not walk away from your house. Why? There is not enough time to find another house prior to closing their old house…..and remember, they did all this because they do not want to be homeless once they close on their old house.