house not selling

Can it be both a Seller’s Market & a Buyer’s Market?

by John Rice

I was on the phone with a good friend of mine who is an agent with my office. As usual, we got to chatting about what the market is like right now.

I said that it seems like we are back to a more normal market where the best of the best listing are still going fast and sometimes for over the list price, while everything else is just sitting on the market waiting for a buyer to even notice it is for sale.

I then when on to postulate that this was due to the COVID market. Back then, the new listings of the day were the pending sales of the next day. Instead of Days on the Market, it was more like Hours on the Market. Every house seemed to sell immediately so there was no need to keep mental track of what was on the market. I think that got buyers and their agents in the habit of only looking at new listings and those with fresh price reductions. If a buyer or their agent wasn’t impressed with the house when it was a new listing or had just gotten a price reduction, it is like it disappeared. It was forgotten forever. It has always been hard to get people to revisit a stale listing, but it got even harder after COVID.

I think I went on and on for a little while longer. Then my good friend said he had heard somebody say this about the current market: “The first 10 days a house is on the market, it is a Seller’s Market. After that it is a Buyer’s Market.”

I told him I thought this was an incredibly simple way of explaining where and why the market is where it is right now. Then I went on to tell him that with me being so wordy, I would probably take 500 words to explain that to somebody……..which I apparently did in only the first 225 words of this post!

What to expect for the rest of 2023

by John Rice

In 2-3 months, you will be reading that sales have dropped significantly. The news media will have you believing the sky has fallen. They will compare the stats to the booming pandemic years and/or the best of times……as if that was normal. Headlines will read:

“Sales down 20% (compared to last month.)”

“Mortgage applications fell to lowest level (since 2022.)”

The reality will be that the market has just returned to normal, seasonal cycles.

I think sometimes we forget to look back far enough to see the bigger patterns. It probably doesn’t help that the media people are only following real estate long enough to write their article. It also doesn’t help that so many real estate agents haven’t been in the business long enough to see a balanced or even a bad market.

This is what a balanced market looks like: Some houses sell the first day on the market in multiple offers. Some houses don’t sell quickly and need one or more price reductions. March through August are peak sales months. After August the sales gradually slow down and start picking back up after the New Year.

So, for the rest of 2023, I think we will see fewer and fewer sales. Yes, the interest rates are high and that is what is returning us to a more balanced market. However, that is not the only reason we will see fewer sales. Part of it will be that we have returned to a more normal cycle of sales slowing down due to the time of year. I think prices will remain stable. We will see a whole lot of price reductions on listings that didn’t sell the first day on the market. This doesn’t mean that values are dropping. It just means the seller and/or their realtor were just too ambitious on the list price. We are returning to a market where buyers have some choices. When there are not 10 buyers fighting for ever single house, it means the loser houses that nobody wants will have to reduce the price to even attract one buyer.

Should you buy that unique home you fell in love with?

by John Rice

So, you’ve found a house you’ve fallen in love with. It’s sort of out of the mainstream. Maybe it has something strange like an elevator in the bathroom or a kitchen addition shaped like an octagonal spaceship? Whatever it is, you love it and you’re wondering if you should buy it.

The answer is yes. Yes, you should buy it. A house is an investment so you want to make a good financial decision, but it is also an investment in your happiness.

However, there are some things to realize and take into consideration before you do.

The main thing you want to avoid is overpaying for it. Most houses like I am talking about tend to have limited appeal in the broader market. It can be difficult to determine the market value since it is nothing like the comparable sales in the area that a realtor or appraiser would use. It takes a bit more of a gut feeling than hard science to figure it out.

Realize that when it comes time for you to sell it, it might take longer. You’ll be waiting for somebody just like you who cherishes all its quirks and features. The good thing about this type of house is that once you find that person, they usually don’t have a back up plan. They aren’t interested in any other house on the market.

Many years ago, I had a very unique home listed. It was an old house that had been totally renovated inside. It looked old on the outside but new on the inside. It was in town but it had 3 acres and felt like a mini-farm. The primary bedroom was “Open concept.” There was no door going to the upstairs primary bedroom. You just walked up the stairs and just like that, you were IN the bedroom once you took that last step. Also totally open was the bathroom. Like, the shower and even the toilet were just sitting there visible from the top of the staircase and from any vantage point in the bedroom. It took forever to sell. The buyers said they had been looking for a long time and fell in love with this place. They had to have it. Literally probably 100 other buyers had given it a very hard pass. That is just how it goes with unique houses.

That’s all I got. Buy it right. Go in knowing it might not be easy to sell. Enjoy your stay in the house between those two points in time.

The single most important thing when selling your house (or anything really)

by John Rice

I did it again.

I bought another car. For people who know me, this is par for the course. I am always falling in and out of love with cars and trading them like crazy.

If you’re wondering how me getting a new car is related to real estate, it is because of pricing.

The car I bought was not expensive. It is just a little Japanese sports car that is fun to drive. A new version came out during COVID and they have been in short supply ever since. You never see one on a lot. Most are sold before they arrive. Dealers are taking deposits on them and telling people they will call when the car arrives.

I went to a Volkswagon car show with my oldest son and his girlfriend last weekend. We had lunch on the way home. They asked about the deposit I had on another one of these cars at a local dealership. I replied that I was told it should arrive later this month. He then went on a mission of finding me one that was immediately available. He found one about 250 miles away in Indiana.

He called to confirm that it was in fact in stock. It was. I remember thinking to myself “Why is this car in stock, collecting dust on a dealer’s lot when every other one is pre-sold???”

Ahhhhhh……the price!

This dealer wanted $9000 over the MSRP price.

I told the salesperson that I was definitely interested in the car but there was no way I was taking it at $9000 over MSRP. He started telling me what a hot car it was and how many calls they get on it. I am totally sure all that is true. I’m a realtor, so I know how markets for things for sale work. This is a super hot car in high demand, but the reason it hasn’t sold is that it was overpriced.

Here are some truths about any market:

  1. You cannot sell something for more than it is worth.
  2. The whole market determines the value, not just the seller.
  3. A buyer is defined as ready, willing and able. (At $9k over list for a very affordable car, that price pushed the total cost well over budget for the target buyers, thus knocking out the “Able” part of those three requirements.)

Like real estate, you cannot sell the most gorgeous $500k house in a highly sought after neighborhood for $750k. If you try, it will sit on the market and you will reduce the price until those ready, willing and able buyers think it is worth it.

But isn’t the market still hot? Yes, it is. Prices are still going up in our area. That means you still, like always, have to price a house for something a buyer will pay. A hot market doesn’t mean you can sell it for more than it is worth. It just means it will sell quickly and many buyers will want it and be eager to pay top dollar….not more than top dollar. If you ever see a house that is sitting on the market and wonder why it hasn’t sold, literally 100% of the time it is due to price. It may have some odd feature or be in bad shape, but it will definitely sell when the asking price is in line with what Buyer’s think it is worth.

So what happened with the car? They came down to $6k over MSRP and I drove up and got it yesterday. I suspect had they priced it at that from the beginning, it would have immediately sold.

Know what I like about this market?

by John Rice

If you just want the answer but don’t care to know why, it is because this market is LOGICAL.

If you want to know what I mean, here we go:

Other than the past few years, the real estate market has always been logical. The best houses sold for the most money and sold the quickest within their price range. The second choice houses sold for less than the more desirable houses. Location mattered. The lot the house was on mattered.

For a few years there, nothing mattered. Any house was selling for more than it should have and it didn’t matter if one house was in a second choice neighborhood or had a terrible lot. It was tough being a realtor back then. You could look at recently sold comparable homes and determine what a house should be worth, but it always sold for more, sometimes waaaaaay more than that. I would tell my sellers “Here is what your house is really worth but here is what it could sell for…..expect anything to happen!” I would tell my buyers “Here is what the house you are bidding on is worth, but here is how much of a convenience fee you may have to pay just to end your misery of losing in multiple offers.”

Today’s market is about logic again and I am glad. If two identical houses come on the market on the same street and on the same day and one of them backs to the interstate and the other doesn’t, the one with the better lot will sell for more. If a house is overpriced, it won’t sell at all.

Why is this? It is because today’s buyer has choices. Yesterday’s buyer had one shot at the only active listing in their price range. Having a little inventory makes a difference. It is still a good market. It is an even better market if you have one of the better houses in your price range. This has always been true. I remember back in 2009. The market sucked yet I was getting multiple offers the first day on the market for some of my listings. Buyers will always pick the very best house that is available and take a pass on those that aren’t. That’s just the way logic works.