neighbohoods

What’s 2024 Going to be Like?

by John Rice

I do these type of posts every year. Not to brag, but I am usually spot on. Why is that? I think it is because I don’t concern myself with short term knee jerk reactions to market fluxuation like the media does. I don’t view “Demand” like most people. I think there is always demand because everybody loves real estate and everybody ultimately wants to own their home. How many people are out there buying at this exact moment can vary, but there is always demand.

I think 2024 will be a better year for buyers and a still great year for sellers. We have all been on a roller coaster the past few years:

2020-We thought we were all going to catch COVID and die, or didn’t think it existed at all. We were too busy fighting over everything early on to bother with buying or selling houses….until later in the year when rates got so low.

2021-We partied like it was 1999. We chatted daily about how much our crypto went up. We got a better house, an airbnb or refinanced what we already had like crazy.

2022-We continued to party like it was 1999 but we knew the ball was about to drop. Just like inflation was eroding our purchasing power, we could no longer afford the cost to maintain our enthusiasm.

2023-Was like “Will there be a recession?”, “Are we IN a recession?” and “These rates are crazy high right now!” It felt like when somebody thinks they saw a shark and everybody jumps out of the water. Was there a shark? Who knows, but nobody wants to be the first one to get back in the water.

2024 is looking like the economy has stabilized, rates are going to drop to a level that is historically average, and all those people who are on the fence will come out….just like the opening scene of Bambi. Affordability will remain an issue. Prices will at least stay stable. We will read later in the year that rent prices are dropping but that data is skewed. All the new giant apartment complexes will be competing for the same tenants. Prices for apartments will go down for sure. The single family rental market will remain strong since there are not enough single family houses for anybody in any market.

Ultimately, I think this will be the most normal market we have seen since Covid.

And I welcome it. Bring on 2024!

What makes a good time to buy? It’s not what you think

by John Rice

In my nearly 20 years of being in this business, I have rarely seen anybody think it was a great time to buy a home.

Most of our perception of when was a great time to buy is retrospective.

2008-2010 was a fantastic time to be a buyer. Rates were really low, inventory was up, prices were down. But know what? Every buyer was scared to death to buy back then. Why, because like any time though history, there were reasons that made it scary. There will ALWAYS be reasons that make any moment in the future seem like a scary time to buy: Wars, recessions, politics, interest rates, employment stats, the price of gas. There will never ever be a time when all of those variables align to make you fell like it is the perfect time to buy a home.

Now I’m not just saying this because I’m a realtor. To most realtors, it is always a good time to buy. Interest rates going down? BUY and save money. Interest rates going up? BUY before they go higher. Inventory is up? BUY while you have options. Low inventory? BUY just to get in the market.

Know what I say? Buy when the time is right for you. It doesn’t matter what the market is like. It doesn’t matter what the interest rates are. Buying will always get you ahead because you will be buiding equity with every payment. You are investing in your furture though real estate, all while having a place to live that you can control. How will you know when you’re ready:

  1. When you can afford the payment and to maintain a home.
  2. When you know you will likely be able to stay in the home for at least the next 4-5 years.
  3. When your life is settled enough that the house you can afford will meet your needs for the next 5 years.

If you are at the point when all 3 of those conditions are met, it’s time to start shopping. Like I have been saying for nearly two decades: Buy a house on a decent lot, with a good floor plan, in one of the best neighborhoods in your price range. These three things will make your house desirable in any market when it is your turn to be the seller.

Buying a home will always be risky. Just be smart about it and minimize those risks though planning and good decisions.

Short term pain-Long term gain

by John Rice

I was showing one of my rental houses to a prospective tenant yesterday. This young lady said she was torn between buying and renting.

Know what I told her…..while she was standing in my house which was for rent?

I told her to buy a house if she could. I said that I think right now it seems scary and might not be any fun to have such a high interest rate, but in 5 years, she will surely look back and be glad she had bought something.

Why? Because history shows us that rates won’t stay high forever. It also shows us that prices won’t stay where they are right now forever. The odds are very strong that you will one day be able to refinance and the odds are even stronger that prices will at minimum rise slowly over time.

Also because when you are paying rent, you are paying down somebody else’s mortgage and are getting absolutely nothing in return other that getting to live somewhere for the next month. When you buy a house, at least part of your payment goes to building equity in an appreciating asset. Then, too, there is the fact that the principal and interest portion of your mortgage payment will NEVER go up, unlike your rent.

About the only time I advise people to rent is when they know they will not be in a house for more than 3-4 years. If you know you will need to move again in that short of a time, you may come out ahead by buying but the difference is so slim that it may not be worth the risk.

So pretty much, I told here that buying right now is a short term pain, but a long term gain. For her own sake, I hope she can buy a house.

You won’t believe what happened with their Zestimate

by John Rice

I put on a new listing last week. Like what happens a lot of the time, Zillow’s zestimate was way off of what a thoroughly detailed, comprehensive, professional opinion of the market value was. Usually once Zillow gets the listing from the local MLS, their Zestimate suddenly changes to something more in line with the list price.

Not with this house however.

My seller reached out to Zillow after unsuccessfully trying to claim their home on the site. Zillow was nice enough to send them an email that basically said Zillow has never been in the house, knows nothing about the house or its condition, but somehow is still happy to publish a value. More of a Guestimate than a Zestimate in this realtor’s opinion.

Knowing artificial intelligence is running Zillow, I told my seller that I would play around with the marketing remarks and see if somehow certain keywords might change anything. It was a long shot but it was all we had.

I put words like “Recently” in front of the word “Remodeled” when describing their primary suite bathroom. I removed the word “Original” when describing some of the cool character of the house. I removed the word “Traditional” in a sentence describing the homes in the entire neighborhood. I tried to used words like New, updated and fresh every place I could make it work without looking stupid.

And guess what?

The next morning the Zestimate was up nearly $90,000 and right in line with the list price.

I outsmarted Artifical Intelligence. What’s next for me? I am going to try to outsmart my dog, who seems to have trained me to do what she wants, when she wants.

How my fall is shaping up

by John Rice

I’ve been doing a lot of blogging about the market lately. Good stuff, but since I know most of you who will be reading this, I’ve been thinking I better give you all an update on what I have been doing.

I’ve been having a great time the past few weeks.

Yeah, the market is really slow. It’s there. It’s healthy. It is just slow. Few people want to buy and even fewer want to sell. That is okay for sellers and buyers. It is realtors, home inspectors and loan officers who this current gridlocked market affects the most.

I am not complaining though. I have more than enough work to stay comfortably busy.

I have several listings in the pipeline. All of them from people I know. A few buyers too.

I will be listing an amazing ranch in Versailles in a great location, with a great lot, and on a cul-de-sac. It is one of those rare houses that really has no negatives. I am looking forward to selling this for some friends who are moving out of state.

I’ve got a house around Southland that should be on the market sometime this winter or early next spring. It’s an older house with a really good floor plan and several interesting features. I have worked with the sellers several times. It might be the last one unless they were to move back to Lexington after this one sells.

I’ve got a very affordable ranch on the northend that I will be selling for a friend who has used me several times. He is an investor who is parting with several of his properties. I look forward to working with him and his family for probably most of the next year since they will sell one house at a time.

I’ve been working with a large family who has used me a couple of times before. I have really enjoyed getting to spend time with them. We found an ideal home in their existing neighborhood that will serve them well. This house has fairly new HVAC units, replacement windows and a literally brand new roof. I don’t see that Trifecta often. I should be listing their old house here in the next week or so. Their situation was very much like the “Love it or list it” show on HGTV. They loved their neighborhood but their old house wasn’t working. They were entertaining a big addition and remodeling the existing house.

I’ve been working with the mother of a woman that I went to middle school with. I have worked with her once before. Both her and her daughter are so much fun to be around. Once we find the perfect place, I will be selling her old house which is simply adorable. It is on about 3 acres in rural Franklin County. If you had told 6th grade me that I would be a realtor and showing houses to a classmate’s mother 40 years later, I would never have believed it!

Other than committing to wearing long pants every day, it’s shaping up to be an enjoyable fall for me.