neighbohoods

Where is the market RIGHT NOW

by John Rice

Ok.  It has happened.  I think we have hit a ceiling with real estate prices in and around Lexington.

The market has slowed down a bit in the past few weeks.  You can get a photographer or home inspector quicker than you can a neurosurgeon lately.  Could be because 15% of the whole town is on vacation on any given week this summer.  Could be more than a normal seasonal slowdown?

Slowing down isn’t a bad thing, so don’t freak out.  This is kind of like when you are doing 100 MPH and slow down to 80.

I am starting to see more price reductions than I have in the past 6-8 months too.  I don’t think that values for those houses have declined.  I think that sellers were pushing prices higher and higher and buyers are pushing back a little now.  Mr. Overly-Optimistic Seller, you won’t be getting above market value for your house.

It all reminds me of early 2013.  That is when the market made a sudden shift from bad to good.  For about 6 months there it seemed like houses were selling as soon as they hit the market and prices were going up for the first time in years.  The market changed so fast it reminded me of being a kid on a swing and somebody giving you a swift push that causes you to hold on tight as your neck snaps backwards.

The rest of 2013, all of 2014 and 2015 were good markets, but less frenzied.  Then early 2016 gets crazy again.  It was the first time in my career of over 11 years that I waited in line to show houses.  If the frenzy is over, that is one thing I won’t miss!

Neighborhoods that benefited the most from school district changes

by John Rice

I get a lot of questions about school districts and property values.  Most of the time there is nothing to worry about unless your neighborhood goes from having average/above average schools to getting ones that are worse.    A lateral move doesn’t really matter.  The best situation is when you have poorer performing schools and get better ones….which is the topic of today’s blog post.

Here are the top 3 winners in my opinion.  The biggest changes in the district boundaries were in the Hamburg/40509 area, so these are all out that way:

3.  The Home Place/Gleneagles.  The cat got out of the bag early on this one.  The school district bought land in this area and everybody knew that these 2 neighborhoods would go to the new school.  Suddenly it became a more desirable place to buy and prices went up.

2.  Greenbrier.  Several years ago I would get the same feedback from my buyers after showing houses in this neighborhood.  They would say “I love the neighborhood and all the space out here, but I don’t have $100k to renovate this house AND pay for private school.”  So, they wouldn’t buy it.  Now that “The Brier” is getting the new elementary and new high school, houses are selling and being renovated.

1.  Chilesburg.  Use to be only the first phase of that neighborhood went to Athens-Chilesburg Elementary (A.C.E.).  It never really made any sense since the school was right in the middle of the neighborhood.  The neighborhood got the school and prices have really gone up.  Use to be if you were in the mid $200k range and wanted that school, Andover Hills was your only option.  There use to be a big gap between similar sized houses in these two neighborhoods.  Not any more.  Chilesburg can pull the same money per sqaure foot as Andover Hills can now.  A 2500 square foot 4 bedroom house in Chilesburg use to be about $190-225k several years ago.  Practically the same floor plan in Andover Hills was getting $225-245k.  Now both are in the $245-255k range.

LEXington market trends

by John Rice

Ok, we all know there is a shortage of inventory and houses are selling fast….but there is more going on in this town than just that.

Here is what I am seeing in 2016:

  •  Waiting.  Lots of waiting in line to see a new listing it’s first day on the market.  Everybody is so focused on new listings.  Granted, you do want to see them before they sell, but I think there has been more of a shift in how the public gets listings.  Everybody has saved searches and gets alerts when there is a new listing.  If it doesn’t interest them at that very moment, they rarely will consider seeing it later.  They just wait for the next new listing.  That is bad news for sellers who don’t sell their houses immediately, and proof that starting out with the best presentation and the right list price is critical.
  • Not ALL houses are selling as fast as you would think.  Only the good ones are selling immediately.  In Fayette County, there are 555 houses for sale priced between $100k and $500k.  Of those, 152 have been on the market for more than 90 days.  That is almost 1/3 of the available houses.  Savvy buyers go back and look at those 152 to see if they can get it for cheaper and avoid the multiple offer frenzy.
  • New construction on the edge of town isn’t doing so well.  I think Lexington is finally big enough that people see a big difference between being closer in town and on the edge of town.  I am seeing more and more people wanting to be closer in to town….heck, I feel that urge too since I live just past Hamburg and am always stuck in traffic.  One of the most successful new construction neighborhoods has been Summerfield.  I think it is about location more than anything.  You are 10 minutes from downtown and 5 minutes to Hamburg.  The best of both worlds really.
  • Smaller ranch houses in nice neighborhoods are getting amazing money.  I’m seeing 1200-1400 square foot houses getting close to $170k in neighborhoods like Cooper Trace, Ashbrooke, Wyndham Hills, Wyndham Downs and Harrods Point.
  •   Lots of people retiring in Lexington…..even Clint Eastwood is moving here, if you believe everything you see on Facebook 😉  An area super popular with retirees is Brookhaven and Lansdowne.  There are lots of nice ranches on good lots in this area.  You are close to downtown, can hop on New Circle at Tates Creek and go anywhere, cut across roads like Regency, Larkin, Zandale or Reynolds to get to anything on Nicholasville Road.  Plus you have cool places like The Lansdowne Club, Lansdowne Shoppes and are 1o minutes to Chevy Chase.

It sure will be interesting to see what comes for the rest of this year.  I am hearing from other realtors that they are having a hard time getting on a photographer’s schedule.  That either means we have a lot of new listings about to hit the market or realtors are just really impatient to get a house on the market!

 

How to get a house in a tight market

by John Rice

Let’s just jump right in:

  1.  Obviously, the first step is to go see it as soon as it hits the market.  Many houses are selling immediately these days.  You wait until it is convenient to see and you will likely lose it.
  2. If it is a new listing, there is a higher change of there being multiple offers.  Don’t make a lower offer and see what the seller counters back with.  In between your offer and the seller’s response, odds are another offer will come in.  Seal the deal ASAP because nothing is settled until all parties sign a contract.
  3. If you find yourself in multiple offers, go in with your best terms.  Keep in mind that there is more to this than just price.  The closing date and when the seller has to be out are often just as important.  Remember, everybody moving out is going to be moving in somewhere too.  They have to coordinate their move just like you do.  I’ve seen sellers accept or counter a lower offer because the closing date and/or move out date were more favorable.
  4. Sellers get nervous about the home inspection.  I would only suggest doing this if the price is right or it is your dream house, but you could buy it totally “As-Is” or agree to limit what the seller might spend on repairs.  You could maybe just inspect the major systems too.   I’ve been on hundreds of inspections.  Most of the time the repair list amounts to no more than $1000 and is full of minor items that you would not walk away over……so in a super tight market for the house you really love, why risk losing it?  This is funny for me to write, because when the market was so terrible, I was suggesting sellers do anything they could to hang on to the few buyers in the market!
  5. You could raise the earnest money amount.  Personally, I don’t care how much the earnest money is.  The buyer gets it back for just about any reason short of giving you the middle finger and saying they just changed their mind.  Some agents and sellers get excited about the amount of earnest money though.
  6. Most people have a personal attachment to their home.  They want it to go to somebody they feel good about.  So yeah, we are back to the days of writing a personal letter to the seller and maybe including a picture of you/your family.  Everybody else will just be a name at the bottom of the offer.  You will be a person.

Of course, every situation is a little different.  Having an agent who can help determine the best course and to what extent you need to do all this will help the most.

BIGGEST factor in picking a house

by John Rice

A friend of mine called me last week.  Her son was about to buy a house sight unseen in a different state and she wanted to know what I thought.  While I did not have any specific knowledge or experience in a market that was a 10 hour drive from Lexington, what I chose to tell her should help insulate her son from making a bad decision.  It will do the same for you.

The biggest thing to think about is how a house fits in with the other homes in the neighborhood.  If almost all the houses have a 2 car garage and the one you want only has a 1 car, that is bad because buyers will view your house as inferior to others.  You don’t want a small lot when most are bigger.  A smaller house when most are bigger.

About the only way being different normally helps is if a house is better than most in the same neighborhood.  Like, having a 3 car garage when most have 2.  Having a bigger lot when most are smaller.  These things make the house superior to the rest and help with resale potential.  (When buying though you have to make sure you are not spending a lot more than the typical house in a neighborhood-these superior features do add some value but it is generally not a good idea to be the most expensive house in the neighborhood.)

Resale potential is about how appealing a house is in the market place…..not to be confused with resale value.  Values fluctuate.  Appeal is consistent.  In a hot market, all houses sell.  In a bad market, only the best sell.  When the market was in the toilet several years ago, the better houses kept more of their pre-crash value and sold faster than others.

Pick a good one.