real estate

What to look for in your next Realtor

by John Rice

I had a friend contact me on Facebook about the possibility of finding a new agent to sell their house that is outside of my market. They were not asking me about listing it for them, just advice on what to do. Seems they have had a lot of showings, and obviously no offers yet. I though this would make a good blog post.  

“Sorry to take so long to get back to you. This isn’t an easy one to answer so I wanted to have time to give a thorough response.

I’ve got a few questions.

Question 1: Is your current agent presenting it well online? Go online and take a look at the listing. If the pictures and marketing remarks wouldn’t make you want to see it, odds are everybody else feels the same way. While you are there, double check that everything is accurate.

Question 2: Is it priced realistically? If you have had that many showings, it may be priced high. I don’t know the market where you live, but to have that many buyers look and not make an offer could mean that the price is too high or………Question #3!

Question 3: Is the feedback you are getting from showings that there is some fatal negative that buyers just can’t look past? If you keep hearing the same thing over and over again, you might have a big negative. Most big negatives can only be conquered with a price reduction.

So, if you do part ways with this agent, here is what I would look for next. Ideally, an agent that works with at least as many buyers as they do sellers. Most agents prefer to list. Agents that mostly only list houses don’t see as many houses. An agent that works with a lot of buyers has probably been in a lot of the houses that you will be competing against. That agent will be better able to tell you what your house offers to buyers that are out there right now! I’d also look for somebody that deals mostly in your price range. It always kills me when I see an affordable house listed by agents that deal almost exclusively in high end houses. What does an agent really know about a $250k house and $250k buyers when 98% of their work is over a million?

I’d also look for somebody that has a plan. Don’t go for the agent that spits out their average days on market unless they can specifically tell you what they did to acheive it. You want somebody that will do a market analysis and will show you how they came up with what they think your house is worth, even if you don’t like the number. Some agents will list a house for whatever price it takes to get the listing. Then they start hitting you up for price reductions. I kind of think it is better to deal with reality now, since you’ll have to at some point down the road.

I hope this helps. Let me know if you have any other questions…..I may turn this into a blog post. (No names of people, places, things though.)”

What’s an old house worth?

by John Rice

I had to run the comparable sales data for a house in the area between Chevy Chase and UK. My buyer wanted to know what I thought a house I showed him was worth. Usually comps aren’t too hard. In a newer neighborhood, they can be really easy since sometimes you can even find three of the exact same floor plans to use.

Older houses are a little harder to comp. For example, the 3 best ones I had to pick from today were all in the same area, but were very different. A lot of realtors would have just divided the sale price by the square footage, maybe added/subtracted for differences such as the number of bathrooms or a garage. (Or even worse, just gone with what Zillow says is the value.) It is all a very logical process of averaging data to come up with an opinion of value. The only problem is that it doesn’t always work.

Back to my story….

The cheapest one was on the edge of the neighborhood near where the commercial section ends on South Ashland. That corner of the neighborhood has a very different vibe than the one I saw with my buyer.  The next one was right around the corner from the house I showed. You’d think that would have been a good one. But, it was much bigger, had been converted to student housing a long time ago, had a surplus of bedrooms, and was handicap accessible. That isn’t going to attract anybody from the same buyer pool as the one we saw. Sorry if this is starting to sound like the real estate version of “Goldilocks”, but the last one was just right.

The last place was similar in square footage, was more updated, had newer systems and would attract buyers from a much broader pool. It sold for less than the asking price of the one we saw.  I had to tell him that I thought the one we saw was over priced.

I also had to tell him that with old houses, you just never know. Somebody could see that place and totally fall in love with it, with the end result being they paid more than any other buyer would.

All this reminds me of 2 houses I had listed on Wabash a long time ago. Both of them were totally and tastefully updated. The first one I listed was everything anybody could want in an old house, with the exception of very rough and very steep steps that went to the converted attic space. It was really nice up there, but getting there was posing a problem. Time after time (not trying to sound like Cyndi Lauper here) the feedback would be that the house was very nice but those stairs were a deal breaker. We did sell it however.  I should add that we actually sold it for much higher than the neighbors and a realtor who lived a few blocks away ever though was possible. The comps didn’t really support the asking price. We kind of pushed the envelope and it worked. The buyer was transferring from California, had a tight time line and everything in Lexington looked like a bargain!

The next house I listed on that road was equally nice. They had remodeled the upstairs, bumped out the roofline of the back and added a killer master bathroom and a walk-in closet. Those are 2 things you don’t see often in an older house, especially for the price range we were in. That house posed a different problem for me. See, the downstairs rooms were sooooo small. If you just looked at the comps, you’d have thought the house was worth about $20,000 more than it was. We had to sell it a little under the comps to make up for the small rooms because this time, there was no California transferee to be found.

So, you really have to have a feel for how buyers will perceive the house as a whole to know where to add or subtract value. That is the art part of the deal. Even to the most unemotional buyer, they still have to like the house to buy it. On the comp sheets that all the realtors use, it has the scientific stuff  like values for square footage differences, bathroom count, a finished basement verses unfinished basement, the number of garage spaces, etc. The problem is that if we don’t throw a little art into the comps we’ll just get them wrong…………unless the house is one of those where 3 identical houses have recently sold!

Can’t verses Won’t

by John Rice

I’m in the middle of the worst part of all real estate deals…………Negotiating repairs after the inspection. 

The seller’s realtor told me, in great length, why the seller WON’T do a couple of repairs we asked for.  I don’t know about you, but when I hear WON’T, it makes me want to dig in my heals and push back. 

One of the repairs was over an issue in the backyard.  They had a major landscape company come in and do a koi pond and patio.  I think the reason for the WON’T was because they just couldn’t emotionally bring themselves to “Undo” the work they have done.  That being the case, if their realtor had just said something like “I’m really sorry, but after putting so much of themselves into creating that wonderful space, the seller’s simply CAN’T bring themselves to makes the changes your client wants.”  Isn’t that much better than hearing WON’T??  I mean, the bottom line is that they aren’t going to budge on that one, but getting it in a pill that is a little easier to swallow leaves us not wanting to push back. 

So, CAN’T is sooo much better than WON’T, even if the results are the same.  WON’T always comes across as aggressive.  CAN’T at least has a chance of getting some sympathy from the other party.  I don’t remember if it was my dad that told me about CAN’T and WON’T or if it was my old mentor Susan Webb.  Both of them are pretty fantastic, so I guess all that matters is that I learned it.

The wrong way to make housing more affordable

by John Rice

I keep seeing a bit of enthusiasm in the media regarding the market softening to the point that real estate prices will drop.

With the logic of a 5 year old, sure, it makes sense that lower prices make things more affordable. There are however more variables that go into a mortgage payment. There is the price you pay, your interest rate and the length of your loan. There is another variable independent of real estate and that is wages. I read this morning that wages are going up as workers are demanding more income to combat inflation. I predicted this. Inflation came first and hurt all of us. I knew that in time, wages would have to go up as well. I used to have a lawn care business when I was younger. I remember a customer who built their house brand new in the 1960s. They told me their payment was something like $160 a month and some months it was hard to make ends meet. We laugh at that payment today, but keep in mind that it was probably still about 30% or more of their income.

Let’s say that we all wake up tomorrow and real estate prices have dropped 20%. Yay affordability!! It won’t make a bit of difference. Why? Having lived through the Great Recession, I can tell you that Buyers will not view this as an opportunity. They will be afraid to buy. The self claimed shrewd Buyers will try to time the market and wait for prices to go down more. Those Buyers usually end up waiting so long that prices have started to rebound before they feel comfortable to pull the trigger.

Let’s also take into consideration what softening real estate prices will do to those who already own a home, which ultimately affects everybody. For most middle class folk, their home is their greatest asset. If they feel good about the value of their home and their job security, they will go out and spend their money. They take vacations. They go to Lowe’s and Home Depot. They buy furniture. They spend on landscaping. It’s good for the whole economy. They stop all that when the value of their home goes down. How do I know? I saw it from 2007-2011.

What is the solution? Build more houses. We have been in a housing shortage since the Great Recession ended. Yes, people right now are not moving since they got super low rates that don’t exist anymore. That is keeping prices high in these times of higher rates. But think back. When rates were super low and everybody was eager to buy houses, we still didn’t have enough houses available.

And if you think affordability and low inventory are bad now, just wait until rates drop down to around 6% or hopefully less. That will create a bit of a frenzy. There will be even more bidding wars and prices will continue to go up, making housing less affordable.

Airbnbust?

by John Rice

One of the most valuable lessons I learned from my dad is how cycles work.

I remember one of the first times I ever thought about such things was when we lived in a starter home neighborhood in Frankfort. I remember him telling me that the houses in our neighborhood would eventually get run down because everybody who buys such an entry level home only plans to stay there for a few years. You don’t do a room addition, kitchen renovation or anything when you’re thinking so short term. Forty years later, the neighborhood is pretty run down. Houses only got fixed up when the values got so low that an investor could buy them cheap enough to make a profit.

Another thing I learned about cycles is to expect them. There will be good times. There will be bad times. Most people view the good times as the norm and are shocked when bad times come.

We are there now with the short term rental market.

Over the past few years, I’ve had several clients ask me about getting into the STR (Short term rental) market. I have always been cautiously optimistic. I tell them sure, you can make some money, but have a backup plan because one day, the market will be saturated and/or demand will not be as strong. We had several things line up perfectly all at once to create the buzz for short term rentals. We had many people wanting to travel after the pandemic, we had a robust economy, and we had people eager to try using an Airbnb. I knew that would not last forever, especially with so many so eager to buy a house and use it for short term rentals.

The downside of the cycle is happening now. I am on a facebook group for real estate investors. Just about everybody is saying their bookings are waaaaaaay down compared to last year. We have several things that have lined up but none of them are good: Everybody travelled a lot after the pandemic and demand is down, we have a not-so-robust economy, and people are a little more cautious of short term rentals (Excessive fees, terrible hosts, pretty houses in scary areas, etc.)

In time, demand will pick up. Those who were merely Airbnb hobbyists will get out of the market leaving only those who view it as a serious business. This is part of a cycle too.

So what’s my advice to anybody wanting to buy real estate for STRs? Have a backup plan. Make sure the numbers also work as a long term rentals. Be ready to pivot when needed. Buy a property that is a good investment. Don’t buy a terrible house in a slummy neighborhood where the only desirable feature would be your trendy decor. Have an exit plan because one day you will be as excited to sell your property as you were the day you bought it.