real estate predictions

A bridge not to burn

by John Rice

We are back in a market where buyers want to test sellers and see how far they will bend.

Used to be that the average List-to-Sale percentage was about 97%. That means that the house sold for 97% of the list price. As the market got hot right before COVID, it inched up. During and immediately after COVID, houses were selling for no less than full price, many going for 10% or more over the list price.

Those days are gone. I occasionally see a house that will go for slightly over the list price. That is only for super amazing houses that got multiple offers immediately. Short of that happening, full price is about the best a seller can expect and not a whole lot sell for that.

I have had many sellers this year get super discouraged when we finally got an offer. Most will tell me they don’t even want to reply to it. I tell them that it doesn’t matter what the initial offer is. What matters is how high the buyer will go. Most of the time the buyer will end up paying an amount that the seller is satisfied with.

If a buyer offers 92% of the list price, odds are they will go to 96%.

If a buyer asks for $5k in repairs after a home inspection, odds are they will settle for $2500.

It is crazy how predictable this is. So much so that when I get an offer or a repair list, I am usually correct on where it will end.

So, if you are a seller, be prepared for this. Don’t be offended. Don’t reject the offer or burn the bridge. Keep playing the game until it is over. Odds are you will be glad you did.

Does spending more get you more?

by John Rice

I’ve always been into two things: Houses and cars.

There are a lot of luxury cars out there that are really just blinged out versions of cheaper cars. Cadillac Escalade? At its core, it is a Chevy Pickup truck…….sorry if you have one and I have insulted you. Lexus TX? It is a better looking Toyota Highlander. Nothing wrong with these companies doing this. It is an economy of scale to be able to sell essentially the same thing to buyers in different socioeconomic classes. They add a few features and make it look better for a lot more money, but all the important stuff is shared with their cheaper platform mates.

Now that you’ve got the concept of today’s blog post, let’s see how it relates to houses.

I showed a house to a client today. It was in a very Toyota Highlander neighborhood. It was close to 3500 square feet with a basement. Great location. Great school district.

I told my client I thought this $484k house was a great value. Why? Because if you spend $100k more, you wouldn’t really get a bigger or better house, you might just get brick on all four sides and be in a more Lexus TX neighborhood.

Sometimes spending more doesn’t really get you much more.

#1 biggest mistake a seller can make

by John Rice

Often, when talking about pricing a house with a seller, they say something like “Couldn’t we price it at this number and won’t people just make an offer if they like the house?” Makes a lot of sense to the seller, but doesn’t when you look at it through the buyer’s eyes.

Why? Let’s say a buyer is shopping for a $400k house. You have a house that is worth $350k, but are asking $400k because somebody will make an offer if they like it, right? The buyers are viewing every house that is priced at $400k, most of which are really worth about $400k. To buyers your house will seem like the worst house they have seen with a $400k list price. Why? They are comparing it in THEIR mind to the better houses they viewed that are worth $400k. The buyer is either going to get a better location, a bigger house, or one in better condition……They are never going to like your house enough to make an offer. On the flip side, the person who is going to spend $350k is never going to see your house because they aren’t looking out of their price range. So, you have a situation where the people looking at your house aren’t going to buy it and the person who would buy it isn’t going to see it!

Here are some tips to keep this from happening:

1) If you must price on the high side, never go more than about 5% over the recent sales of similar homes in your area. Sometimes an over-priced house will get a lot of showing, which makes the seller think they are priced right. You can still get a lot of showing on a slightly over-priced house, but no offers. When you get showings and no negative feedback, it means you have a price issue. I say if you have a $350k house, it needs to priced around that number.

2)  Avoid the temptation to have a high price and have your agent tell people you are motivated. When I see a steep asking price and the agent says the seller is motivated, what comes to my mind is that they are motivated to get their price. A truly motivated seller will price their house at or less than what it is worth. In 2025, the days of testing the market are a thing for history books.

3)  Realize how the market works. You have so many buyers and so many houses. The buyer gets to pick whichever house they want and they always pick the best one. Even in a sloooooow market, I have been in multiple offers. It is human nature to want the best. The buyer is comparing all the houses available. Make your house the best one by pricing it right.

Trust me on this…There is no magic in real estate.

“How long will it take to sell my House?”

by John Rice

I get asked this on every listing appointment. It is hard to believe that a couple of years ago, it was rare for any house in any condition to make it past the first day on the market. I usually don’t reply with an amount of time, but with a sequence of events that need to happen to attract a buyer. The honest to goodness truth is that any house should sell pretty quickly if the seller will do some prep work. Granted, there are exceptions…..Two million dollar house? Will take time since there aren’t many buyers in that price range. A unique house? May need a unique buyer. An overpriced house? Will usually only sell to an idiot with a realtor who thinks we are still in the 2022 market.

I’ve been doing this a long time. This is how it usually goes in this changing market. I see the house. I ask the sellers if they are able to do any work that needs done to attract buyers. Buyers want as move in ready as possible and for the best price right now…..well, I guess they always have but now they have more listings to chose from and sellers can no longer just put their house on the market without a little prep work. Sometimes the seller can’t/won’t do anything. If they can’t/won’t, I tell them the price I think their house will sell for just like it is. Usually though, the seller picks a few items from the list. We put it on the market. They get positive feedback for the things they have done. They get negative feedback for the remaining items on the list.  After awhile, the seller starts to realize that they are going to have to do more items on that list or reduce the price. Often, buyers subtract about 5 times the cost for the remaining items on the list. I’ve been on the buyer side of this. They almost always say something like “If I have to paint this whole house I’m not paying a penny more than $XXX,XXX!!”  or “I would need to replace all the carpet and I like hardwood, so let’s just subtract the cost of hardwood from the asking price and go from there.” Can’t blame them. After all, it is turning into their market these days.

Eventually, the seller plugs away at the list until it sells. See, there is the sequence of events I mentioned at the beginning of this post. Now that the house is ready, it is going to sell because it is competitive and will almost always fall on the short list of a buyer.

But what happens to the people who do everything on the list from the beginning and price it correctly? Their house usually sells very quickly. Why? Because buyers want the best house for their money. Make your house THAT house, and start packing.

The market is changing

by John Rice

No doubt, there has been a shift this year.

Few sellers have to move. Most just want to. None of them are excited about being a buyer if they need to finance their next home. They don’t want to give up their very low interest rate they got during COVID. They are upset that they can no longer expect to sell their house the first day on the market, get above list price, and the buyer waive a home inspection.

Buyers are only buying if they really need to move. They don’t like the combination of high prices and high interest rates. They have more choices and power in the transaction than ever, but they can’t see the forest for the trees.

First time buyers account for the lowest percentage of buyers in forever. Most first time buyers seem to want to skip the small, boring most affordable houses and rent until they can afford what we used to call the “Move up” house. This is leaving most houses under $250k to investors. Almost every super affordable house I have sold this year has been purchased by an investor. Even in multiple offers, they are easier to work with and will often pay the most for a house.

Basically nobody is happy.

This is the first time in my 20 year career of seeing such pessimism from both sellers and buyers in a fairly good market. The only other time I have seen both parties this discouraged is during the Great Recession. It was an extreme Buyer’s Market so sellers were unhappy. Buyers were worried their house would be worth less than they paid for it after the closing. Nobody was happy.

I think we are stuck here for a while. I don’t see prices going up much in the near future and I don’t see them going down either. I don’t see interest rates going down enough to make much of a difference. I think this is just the new normal.