real estate predictions

Can’t afford Lansdowne? Pick these neighborhoods

by John Rice

Love the Tates Creek area, and I mean the part with the 40502 zip code? Want a house built in the middle of the last century? Lansdowne is likely your dream spot to be. And for good reason. Those giant lots and large homes have been fantastic since Day 1.

But if you’re looking at financing most of the $600k to million dollar plus purchase price and your budget says “No Bueno”, What do you do? Stay where you are and be unhappy?

No, you look in Lans-Merik since it is right across Tates Creek Road from Lansdowne. Here you will get almost as large of a lot and the houses are mostly from the 1970s but it has a similar vibe. Think of it as “Lansdowne Lite”. You will end up spending between $450k to maybe just over $700k for the best ones that back to the park.

$450k too much? While it is technically not in the 40502 zip code, Gainesway is literally just across New Circle Road from Lans-Merik. Here you will get a 1960s home on a larger lot in the $300-450k range.

Is it turning to a Buyer’s Market?

by John Rice

Short answer: It depends on the house.

Long answer: I read an article this morning asking this same question. It had all the usual data in any article related to the nationwide real estate market. Average days on market, Average sale price compared to previous years, the number of listings compared to previous years……blah blah blah.

None of that really matters. Why? Because no two houses and no two markets are the same. There is no average house. Average means a composite of all data. It does not look at each house individually. Do you know who does look at each house individually? Buyers do.

A buyer looks at every house within their budget and decides which one they want to buy. Let’s say they look at 10 houses. They are only buying one so they pick the best one. Do you know what else happens? Usually every buyer in that same price range also picks the same best one. That means we have multiple buyers competing for the best houses on the market. Meanwhile, the rest of the houses sit there and dilute all those averages so the media can make illogical conclusions to share with the world.

I have been a realtor for 20 years. It was a Seller’s Market when I started. Then a Buyer’s Market. Then an EXTREME Buyer’s Market. Then a stable market. Then it slowly built into the strongest Seller’s Market ever. Now, more than ever, we sort of have two markets. If you want the best house in the best neighborhood, you better be prepared to go over the list price and be flexible on anything important to the seller. If you are not picky, make a low offer on one of those houses that nobody else has wanted. After 20 years of this, I can tell you that when you go to sell whatever house you decide to buy, picking the best one will always have been the wisest decision. The best houses will always be worth the most, be the easiest to sell, and will have the broadest appeal.

But don’t we need wiggle room in our list price?

by John Rice

This is one of the questions I get asked a lot when I list a house. I think I probably always freak out my sellers when I tell them that they don’t need to price their house way over what we anticipate it will sell for.

I guess the biggest fear, and I can understand it, is that people will assume that there is wiggle room, and that they are going to have to sell for less…..and that just isn’t the case.

Sure, there may be people who come along and offer waaaay less than you are asking. But you know what? I don’t consider them to be real buyers. When I was a new Realtor, I had some people that would just go from listing to listing making crazy offers. Eventually I would see the writing on the wall and I’d let them keep perpetuating their hobby without me. I doubt any of them ended up actually buying a house. Why price your house based on nuts like that? Doesn’t it make more sense to price it where it will be attractive to the people who may actually buy your house?

Check this out. Back in about 1997 I had a lawn care business. I had grown it to the point where I needed a dedicated truck. I saw an ad for a 1993 Ford F-150 with 48,000 miles on it. The price was $5980. I knew that was a good price. Took it for a test drive. Wanted it. Sat in the little cubicle with the sales man and made him an offer. He blew his chance to remind me that was a fantastic price. What he did was make it a battle. Dude told me that they “Couldn’t sell that truck for one nickel less than that price!” I was floored. Other than during COVID, don’t you always haggle when buying a car? I left to see what else was available since I couldn’t go back there without feeling like I had lost to that guy. After looking at more trucks, I realized THAT truck was by far the best one and was at the best price anywhere in town that day. I just didn’t know what to do. Soooo, I called the wisest man I know…..my Dad. I told him that the truck was the best deal and that I wanted it, but just couldn’t go back there. Being the wise person that he is, he told me to go back and offer them a nickel less. Yep. Offer $5979.95.  I did and I got the best truck at the best price that was available that day anywhere in Lexington.

Guess what? Real buyers will recognize the value of your house. They are looking at every house in their price range just like I did with that truck. Sure, we are accustomed to wiggle room, but people don’t mind paying near or full asking price if the house is worth it. Even in today’s higher interest rate market, I frequently see houses going for over the list price. I once had one where they came back twice with lower offers. We just politely said “No thank you.  Take a look at the comps. We’ve priced this house for what it is worth.” They, like me with the truck, knew it was the best available house at the best price. Here’s the difference though, I didn’t get an attitude with the other agent like my salesman did with the nickel issue. We ended up selling the house for 99.2% of the asking price. We came down just a little so the buyer would feel like they won…..but in reality, we all won that day!

Did you pick the right house?

by John Rice

How do you know if you’ve picked THE right house? What IF a better ones comes on the market after you make a decision? How do you know you WON’T regret your decision?

There is no way that you or I can really answer those questions, so I am not going to try. What I can offer are some tips based on my experience that might prevent you from feeling this way. 

How do you know if it is THE house? I think any house you are afraid somebody else will buy out from under you shows it is pretty high on your list. If you can just totally see yourself  living in the house, it may be the one. Same thing with comparing other houses to it. If you are doing that, it means that one is at the top of your list.

How can you prevent regretting your decision? I think the best thing you can do is to take your time in reaching your decision. Granted, sometimes when everybody else wants the house too, you don’t have that luxury. I like it when people get to see a house for the second time. You always notice more of the bad stuff on the second visit. It is even better if you come back at a different time of day. Rooms will look different with the sun on the opposite side of the house. Something that I’ve always told buyers to do, and not many actually have done it, is to drive around the neighborhood on a nice warm Friday or Saturday night. That will bring out anybody that will be annoying, so you won’t have any surprises later. Tough luck if it is winter.

There are a couple other things that bring on regret: Having a tight timeline and getting so tired of looking that you just want it over with. If you have a tight timeline, preparation is the key. I have done a lot of work for people moving form out of town. They’ll only be in town for a few days and have to pick a house. I try to work with them as soon as I know they will be coming here. It all usually happens by e-mail or text, but we chat about neighborhoods, parts of town I think they’ll like, etc. Then I’ll start previewing houses for them. At this point it is all about eliminating houses. You’re not really looking for the right one, you’re trying to whittle down the list to a manageable amount for them to see when they get here. 

Now, about getting tired of looking. If you find yourself here and can do it, just take a break. It is a really scary place to be. It sneaks up on you like a sunburn. Ignore your Zillow app. Maybe have your agent preview houses. By the time you get to this point, your agent should really know what will work for you and what won’t. 

Okay. One more question left?  How will you know a better house won’t come on the market as soon as you sign a contract? Simple answer. You won’t. I tell people to quit looking at houses online once you get past the inspections. If you don’t look, you’ll never know. And if you are the type that won’t take this advice, remember that sometimes houses look better online than they do in person. You are comparing your house in reality to the select pictures that the listing agents wants you to see……So that other house probably isn’t as good in reality as you are picturing it in your head. You got a good house, now just enjoy it.

Why you shouldn’t care about average days on market

by John Rice

I met with a cool family a few weeks ago. They were going to interview a handful of realtors. I’m always a little freaked out at listing presentations. See, there are agents that come with power point presentations full of market wide data available to every realtor in town, and then blurt out something like “After looking at the statistics for this neighborhood, your house will sell at 5:46 P.M. next Tuesday.” That impresses some people I guess. I’m not one of those that throws out a bunch of statistics. I kind of like to look at the house, assess the positives and negatives that I think buyers will see, then do a market analysis to find what I think the house is worth. I usually do all this wearing a pair of shorts and sandals, often forgetting to give the people my business card. I ordered 5000 back in 2016 and still have about 4983.

Why don’t I worry much about DOM and other statistics? It is because I am only dealing with one house. Yep. That’s right. The only numbers I care about are the ones for your house. We never really know when your Buyer will arrive. All we can do is price it realistically, make it look as great as possible, and present it well online.  When I get such a seller, their house usually sells quickly.

So, back to the listing appointment. I’m on the tour of the house and the husband asked me the average DOM question. I told him that I didn’t even look at that because I don’t care how long it took other houses to sell in the recent past, I only care about how long it is going to take his house to sell right now. As soon as I said that, I knew I either had this listing or I had just totally blown it.

Fortunately this cool couple saw my point and went with me.