real-estate

What happens when first time buyers can’t afford to buy?

by John Rice

I had lunch with a good friend who is also a realtor earlier this week. He started a discussion about statistics for our local area. That got me doing some digging on my own.

I saw something interesting. Sort of scary really.

Now, I am comparing October of 2021 to October of 2022 here. October of 2021 was a crazy time when about every house was selling immediately and often for well over the list price.

Want to guess which price range is seeing the biggest decline in both closed and pending sales since rates rapidly went up? The sub $200k price point. Want to know which price range saw the least decline? Over $500k.

Pretty much all the stats show the first time homebuyer price range hit the hardest. You would think during a period of high interest rates, the more expensive houses would struggle to sell, wouldn’t you? From what I have read about the last time we dealt with inflation in the early 1980s, it was very hard to sell an expensive house back then. That’s why you don’t see many big, nice houses that were built during that time but you see tons of smaller starter homes.

We need these first time buyers. They are the ones that push the rest of the market since they have nothing to sell before they can buy. Think of it like a baseball game where the bases are loaded. The person on 1st base can’t move to 2nd base until the batter swings and hits the ball. The person on 3rd and 4th base are also stuck there until that batter hits the ball. The first time homebuyer is who we rely on to hit a home run since every other buyer is also a seller who has to breakup with their old house in order to move to their next one.

Historically, it has always been easier to sell a more affordable home than to sell a more expensive one. Statistically, it is easier to sell a more expensive house today than a more affordable one.

Talk about luck

by John Rice

I don’t know about you, but I am sick and tired of the media scaring us with doom and gloom headlines about the real estate market. It’s time for some warm and fuzzy vibes to read, so here are a few of my favorite real estate stories spanning my 17 year career.

The oldest story happened back when the market wasn’t so good. I had a young couple who had used me to buy their first house in Masterson Station. Well, it was time to move up. They found an incredible house in Copperfield that had been on the market for a while. It was a relo sale, which is when the seller has been transferred and a relocation company is involved. When the house doesn’t sell by a certain time, the relocation company buys the house and they become the seller. We wrote an offer contingent on selling their old house. It was accepted. We then sell their old house. Everything is good. Until it isn’t.

The sale of their old house fell apart…..while they were on a cruise. Yep, I had to call and interrupt their vacation to tell them that not only are they not selling their old house, they are also going to now lose their new house. It was one of the toughest calls I’ve had to make.

They came home. We put their house back on the market. We sell it again after a little while. Guess what? The Copperfield house is still on the market. Only now the relocation company has lowered the price AND replaced some of the carpet. In the end, they got their house for less money than they were paying the first time and got some new carpet too.

Years later, after moving out of state and returning, this same couple told me what they wanted in their next home. They are really good at remodeling so a fixer upper would be a plus if one was available. They had narrowed it down to two neighborhoods. The husband told me he wanted a spot to park a camper or boat. About that same time, a seller in one of those two neighborhoods randomly called me to list their house. The seller was the original owner. The house was in good shape other than some deferred maintenance but was a bit dated. As I saw the house for the first time, I remember thinking it would be a good fit to my buyers. I KNEW it was their home when I saw the extra concrete going from the driveway to the backyard where the seller told me he used to park his camper!

A couple years after this, another client sent her brother to me to talk about buying a first home for he and his wife. As he was describing what they wanted in a house, I told him that I was about to list one just down the street from his sister and brother in law as soon as the seller’s new house was done. Sure enough, they bought it and started their family there. A couple of years later, they asked me to work with them to find an entry level investment property. I had a friend who had been talking about selling a townhouse I had sold him a few years earlier and sure enough, he was willing to part with it.

Some time later, another seller was referred to me by some clients and friends. I met with her at the house she had lived in most of her life since it was built by her parents. While I was waiting on this seller to do a few things to get the house ready, another client took me out for coffee and told me he was looking for a house. His big requirement was enough space to do his woodworking. I told him about the house I was getting ready to list since it had a huge detached garage that, if I remember right, already had enough electrical service for his heavy duty equipment. He bought it.

I used to think these people and many others I have worked with were just incredibly lucky to have exactly what they wanted drop in their laps. Now I realize I am the lucky one for getting to be the hands that drop it in their laps.

Now, isn’t this better than reading about higher interest rates? Don’t worry. They will come down. The real estate market will soldier on. How do I know? Because it always has and that is because everybody has a dream about what they want in their next house, just like these friends and clients of mine.

The #1 thing to do when picking a house

by John Rice

Don’t settle. There, I said it.

As the market becomes somewhat more balanced, buyers now have choices. A year ago, the choice was to buy any house available or not buy a house at all. Buyers said things like “I don’t really love it but I don’t want to loose it. How much over asking price should we go to get it?” Today’s buyer has the choice between several houses in their price range.

There was a lot of settling going on during the past year or two. I get it. You wanted to move and on Friday there were 15 new listings to be greeted by 75 buyers who were just like you.

During this time, I would always tell my clients what I thought of each house. Most of the time I would say something like “In a softer market, this house will be hard to sell. I would wait for a better one if I were you.” Most of them did.

Here are some big things to not settle on when picking a house:

  1. The location. As more houses come on the market, the houses in the preferred neighborhoods will not only sell faster, they will always hold their value better. It’s worth waiting for a preferred neighborhood, part of town, school district, etc because one day YOU will be the seller and you want to make that as profitable and easy on yourself as you can.
  2. The lot. It is easier to sell a terrible house on an amazing lot than it is to sell an amazing house on a terrible lot…..in a balanced market. In a true Buyer’s Market this is even a bigger deal. That amazing house on a terrible lot will one day be outdated and be a subpar house on a subpar lot. A good lot never goes out of style and never needs updating.
  3. Floor plan. If there is something odd about a house, chances are any buyer is going to notice it too. Don’t buy the “If Only” house. That is what I call a house where you really like it but there are one or more major flaws and you walk out the door saying “If only that 3rd bedroom was larger” or “If only that kitchen wasn’t so tiny.”

Why 6-7% interest rates won’t crash our market

by John Rice

If you’re like me, all you are reading in the news is how the skyrocketing interest rates are affecting the real estate market. Headlines say stuff like how the rate has nearly doubled, how sales have decreased, some even are saying the market is going to crash.

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

Youtubers and journalists need something exciting to get your attention. If you saw a headline or video that pretty much said everything is going to be okay, would you be interested?

I think part of this drama is also that you have people whose data is correct but how they use it is wrong, or their data doesn’t give much of a historic comparison.

Affordability seems to be the main topic today. These people are talking about how much more a mortgage payment would be today compared to the all time low we saw last year……DUH! Short term thinking I say.

Here is why I don’t think a 6 or even 7% interest rate is going to do much more than curb unsustainable appreciation and slow down people moving just because they feel like moving. To begin with, people will always have changing needs for housing. Families will grow, there will be divorces, marriages, job transfers, job losses and all the other lifestlye/life cycle changes.

But here are the main reasons I am not worried: The Debt-to-Income ratio and longer term history.

Let me take you back to the early 2000s. The real estate market was crazy. Houses were selling fast in multiple offers. Prices were going up like crazy. Know what the interest rate was back then? Barely under 6%. And back in the late 90s when the market was also booming, it was about 7.5%.

A house in the Bluegrass that was worth about $250k back in 2004ish would be worth about $425k today. The principal and interest portion of your loan at 6% on a conventional loan with 5% down would have been $1423 back then and $2420 today. Yeah, that sounds like a lot more. It is, but let’s keep going here.

So the real difference between then and now with property taxes and insurance included would be about $1200 a month. To qualify for the mortgage on that $250k house back then would require an annual income of about $73k. Today that house would be worth about $425k and would need about $126k in income. The median household income has gone up 80% over that time according to the census. The value of that same house has not gone up quite as much.

So there you have it. I think if the market has historically been very good in the past during times when rates were higher than they are today, and since household income has pretty much grown congruent to home values in the Bluegrass, we will weather this period very well.

Then why is the market so slow right now? Simple. People are in shock and upset that rates went up so fast. Once they realize they can’t go back in time, they will move forward with their plans. I predict that (short of a major economic crisis that pulls down EVERYTHING) buyers will be out in force next spring. Prices will remain stable. It will be a good market. It won’t be a market that you’ll read headlines about because remember, you only see real estate in the headlines when things are exceptionally good or exceptionally bad.

How every Buyer picks their house

by John Rice

I often get a Buyer who gives me a very long detailed list of all the features they want in a house. It’s usually things like how many bedrooms, bathrooms, what type of floor plan, what type of kitchen cabinets or flooring they must have.

Then they buy something totally different from what they described?

Why is that?

It is because people pick the home they ultimately purchase based on how they feel while inside a house. It’s the vibe the house gives them. It is an emotional decision.

When I work with a Buyer, I try to notice how they respond to a house. Did they tell me it was too dark inside? Did they think the yard was too bare and needed more trees? Was the backyard not private enough? Did they not like the floor plan and why? Or did they even care about any of this?

These are the type of things people use when making their decision. If a Buyer feels groovy inside the house, they can overlook items such as not having a pantry, not having the flooring they prefer, or if it is missing one of those specific features they said they could not live without. In houses they feel good about, they say things like “We could always change the counter tops later.”

All of which is why I try to create that vibe when I list a house. Buyers also respond to colors, decor, cleanliness and clutter. You can have the most amazing house but if you have wild paint choices, it is going to be harder to sell. Why is that? Truth be told, few of us have vision. We ALL think we do but trust me, there have been so many times where I have told a Buyer that all a house needs is a fresh coat of their choice of paint and they don’t see it. Or I’ll say imagine this house with the flooring you want and they can’t see it. Or maybe I’ll say “Those cabinets could be painted and that mauve counter top could easily be replaced.” And even worse is a cluttered or dirty house. Nobody can imagine what it would look like in better shape.

So the lesson here for Sellers is that you need to make your house feel a certain way for a Buyer to fall in love with it. Another important thing to keep in mind is that people who totally fall in love with your house will pay the most since it is an emotional response and not a logical one.

How can a Seller do this?

The most crucial and obvious ones are to declutter and clean. Not to your standards but to the Buyer’s standards. Then think about how your house looks. Think about how Buyers will tour your house. Ever been in a Builder’s model home? Next time you go in one, notice that there is just enough furniture to make the space feel good. You want your furnishings to compliment the space, not fill it. You will notice that the furniture often has narrow legs and you can see more of the floor. Seeing more of the floor always makes a space feel larger. There is thought about how people will walk around a space. You don’t want to block parts of the room off with furniture nor do you want to make pathways seem narrow. Those things create the vibe that the house is small. Buyers get that same vibe from this as you do when you’re stuck in a traffic jam.

Something else you do NOT want to do is have Buyers leaving the showing with a To-Do list of repairs. If you have unfinished projects, finish them. If you have a stain on your ceiling from a repaired leak, paint it. Buyers will respond to those things logically instead of emotionally. They begin to think about what it would cost to repair it, and they usually estimate high. You want your buyer to leave your house thinking only about how wonderful their lives will be in your house and how they need to rush home and sign an offer.