Author: John Rice

Sales are down this year…….so what?

by John Rice

I read in the business section recently that sales are down for the 1st quarter of 2009 compared to the 1st quarter of 2008.  So?

Why does this not really bother me?  Why do I not think the market is bad?  You can blame it all on my dad.  See, he always taught me to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges and to put things into perspective.

Check out the number of sale per year over the past 10 years.  These numbers represent all the single family residential MLS sales in the area.

1998-6476 Sales  (Apple)

1999-6454 Sales  (Apple)

2000-6371 Sales  (Apple)

2001-7054 Sales  (Orange)

2002-7482 Sales  (Orange)

2003-8615 Sales  (Orange)

2004-9272 Sales  (BIG Orange)

2005-10,333 Sales  (Giant Orange)

2006-9918 Sales  (Orange)

2007-8855 Sales  (Orange)

2008-7585 Sales  (An Apple, but a big one!)

2009- Don’t know yet, but if it is over 6000 it will be an apple.

You know, what happened was that we all got so use to mind blowing sales increases and more buyers than sellers that we forgot that selling over 7500 houses last year is still pretty good.  Remember 2002?  All the excitement about having just increased sales by 20% over the 2000 numbers?  Well, we are STILL above that now!!

My prediction is that sales will level out to where they would have been had the easy lending of a few years ago  not happened.  There are also fewer houses for sale these days after peaking in 2007.  Once the number of listings drops some more, we will start to see some  appreciation again.

Cat urine, nasty carpet, and other experiences this week

by John Rice

I have seen some crazy homes this week.  I went out one night with a great young couple.  They want to buy one that needs some work, then improve it up to what it would be worth.  Most people pay top dollar for a house, then go out and spend money to fix it up.  If you are going to do that, why not start with one that you can get for a good price?  It keeps you from having more in the house than it is worth.  Kudos to this young family for thinking it through.

We went to one house that was really nice, but it had 3 sump pumps.  The wife told me they drove by the house over the “Dry” weekend and it looked like Ruby Falls was running down the driveway.  Not really a good sign when it hasn’t rained in days and your sump pump is still pumping out water like an open fire hydrant.

The next house was still pretty nice, but it had some of the ugliest light fixtures I have ever seen.  They must have been high style for about 15 minutes on September 16th 1954.

Then we went to the house they like the most.  It will be a short sale, if we can get it done before the foreclosure.  The carpet was so bad that you wanted to wipe your shoes on the mat as you LEFT. The place smelled so strong of smoke that I had a headache and needed a shower when I got home.

The next house was THE worst.  One of the worst I have ever seen.  Fo sho in the top 5.  This house must have been rented by one of those animal horders that you see on the news ever so often.  The place REEEEEEKED of cat urine.  I mean, the EPA should have to issue you Haz-Mat gear before you enter.  There were piles of cat litter everywhere.  I didn’t expect too much when I saw an old mattress at the curb, but I was even shocked.  Having a house I rent out, it scared the living Bejesus out of me to think that one day I could own something like that if I picked the WRONG person to rent to.

Some of my Favorite Areas

by John Rice

I spend a lot of time analysing data and giving people advice on property values, school districts, resale potential, etc.  Don’t get me wrong.  I love doing all that, but today I wanted to write about some parts of town that I like just because I like them.  They have a certain vibe that I find attractive. 

Now, it goes without saying that places like Chevy Chase, Ashland Park, and about anything in the 40502 zip would make the cut.  They do, but  I wanted to share some places that most of us can actually afford!

Even though I don’t plan on living in another old house, I still find them attractive.  I spent years in Kenwick, and my first house was almost 100 years old.  I get excited when I see a neighborhood that survived the 70’s and still has it’s original charm.  One such neighborhood is Meadowthorpe.  It used to seem waaay out, but now the new development out that way has it on more people’s radar.  It has a good vibe and a lot of mature trees.   An great neighborhood for taking walks.

2)  Next on my list is what people call “Southland.”  It is that area around Southland Drive/Clays Mill/ Pasedena.  50’s ranches and a few Cape Cods plus mature trees give it charm.  Plus it feels really close in town.  You also get all those shops on Southland, which was the 50’s and 60’s version of Hamburg.

3)  Gainesway is a pretty neat neighborhood too.  I like the larger lots, rolling terrain, plus you are just outside New Circle Road from the Lansdowne Shoppes.  There are a few cool contemporary houses that are interesting  too!

4)  I like Andover Hills a lot.  So much so that I live there!  I liked it when it was new and still like it.  I am not a golfer, but I enjoy seeing the golf course’s lush landscape. It also backs to Jacobson Park and Lakeside Golf Course.  Plus it is 5 minutes to Hamburg.

5)  Eastwood is a great neighborhood.  It is off of Liberty Rd.  It was one of the first neighborhoods out there.  It is just old enough to have been developed with wider lots.  The older parts of the area have the best vibe.  I think for the money it is a great deal.

6)  Hartland is one of the prettiest neighborhoods in town I think.  I really love the landscaped median that run through the whole main drag.  They also have the centers of their cul-de-sacs landscaped.  Plus you get a city park right there too!

7)  Lake Crossing is kind of a hidden treasure.  It is off of Richmond Road just past Man-O-War.  What is cool about this area is that several of the houses back to the reservoir.  There is also really just one way in and out once you get there, so it feels private and secluded.

8)  While it has more than its fair share of negatives to contend with, Eastland is still an area that I like.  The part with the bigger houses sure offers a lot.  Huge lots, big ranches, a handful of contemporaries to admire as well as a handful of 60’s/70’s design disasters.  The vibe I like is one of spread out space. 

9)  Squire Oak is a cool little area.  It is tucked away beyond the Seaton Center.  It has a cool little park with big trees and bridges over the creek.  For sure, one of the most picturesque parks in town.  Also, some of the houses back to one of the big horse farms.  One that you know will always be a horse farm.

10)  Now, this one isn’t for everybody, but if you want to feel like you are in Gatlinburg, then Walden Grove is for you.  It is off of Wilson-Downing near Belleau Woods.  All the house are contemporary.  There probably isn’t another neighborhood in Lex with this amount of trees. It really feels like you are in a cabin in Gatlinburg, just substitute gently rolling hills for mountains.

Well, those are some of my fave areas.  What are your’s?

The Half Million Dollar Surprise

by John Rice

I have a client that is interested in a $490,000 house.  I called to schedule the showing today.  I was totally floored that not only is the place already under contract, but there are several other people who are “in line” if the contract were to fall apart.

This house has been on the market for over a year.  It is in northern Jessamine County where the market is flooded with houses over $500k. 

It just goes to show that as long as there is a market at all, the best houses for the money will always sell, even at this price point!

Fun Part of the Job

by John Rice

I just spent the past 4 days with an out of state buyer.  We looked at a bunch of houses.  I always get a little nervous when I know somebody from out of town has to buy something within a short time period.  It is  because I know that I am their sole resource in making a big decision.  That is a big responsibility.  I guess I have my Dad to thank for this.  He is a lawyer.  I have watched him most of my life as he really represents his clients best interests.  I think if he wasn’t such a good guy and wasn’t a lawyer, it would be easy for me to consider my job more about selling houses than representing people.

This client was a single lady.  What I had in mind was something that wouldn’t be likely to have a major problem for a long time and to be in an area that she would be safe.  I checked all the property disclosures before we went out to see any of the houses.  I was pretty pleased with how many seemed to have both a newer roof and newer HVAC.  Those are usually the top 2 ways to not have a lot of fun spending money on a house.

The problem I was having was finding one in an area that I thought she would feel safe.  There are lots of good streets in that price range, but a lot of them have you driving through questionable area.  I wanted her to be somewhere that if she got a flat tire on the way home she would be fine walking home, or waiting in her car.

When she found the one she wanted to make an offer on, I kind of did my own version of a home inspection.  My dad would be glad to know that SOMEBODY benefits from all the college courses in Architectural Technologies that  he paid for, as well as all the time he spent showing me how to work on houses!  Everything checked out pretty good.

Before we wrote the offer, I went to work on all the research.  I checked the website to see if any registered sex offenders lived nearby.  I hit the PVA to see who owned the properties around her, and how long they had been there.  I was looking for signs that there was a lot of rental.   My problem with rental property is not the tenant, it is the landlords who cashflow their properties to death and drive down the values for owner-occupants. Often, investors title their property as LLC’s.  Another clue is to see where the tax bill is sent.  If it isn’t sent to the house, that means more than likely that the owner is renting it.   I also hit the crime map to see what types of calls the police get.

While I get nervous having that much of a say in other people’s decisions, I gotta say that it is always fun to do that much work for other people…………but today, I am going to chill out for a bit!