Remember when the Hamburg area was considered to be “North side”?

by John Rice

I still remember when Greenbrier was way out in the country. When there was nothing on Liberty Road past New Circle except the Eastland Church of God. When there was a road called Bryant that ran from Todds Road to Winchester Road.

Times sure change. Back then, the area we now call “Hamburg” was NOT within the boundaries of what was considered the good part of town. Back then, anything on the east side of Richmond Road was considered to be in North Lexington. We just had Chevy Chase, South Lexington and North Lexington as the only way of dividing up the town.

Whenever I get nostalgic about Lexington, it also makes me wonder what it will be like in another 25 years……so, here goes:

No doubt that new schools are coming. We need a couple of elementary schools to serve the whole 40509/Hamburg area. I am sure a middle and high school are in the pipeline already. Not only could we use one now, this area is really the last piece of Lexington inside the urban service area that has yet to be developed.

Take a look at a map of this part of town and you can already see where it is all going. The only big chucks of land to build houses on are in the Blackford Parkway/Polo Club area, Summerfield and Chilesburg. Once those are gone we will have to expand the urban service area or focus on small infill development. As far as commercial goes, Hamburg will look just the same on both sides of the interstate. Man O War will need to be widened all the way to Winchester Road. Winchester Road will need to be widened all the way to Man O War.

What neighborhoods do I see that will become more desirable in this area? There are several.

Greenbrier use to be out in the country and is now practically surrounded by newer neighborhoods. Having the golf course, the big trees and big lots will make this the totally classic neighborhood that everybody loves…..plus, it is the only choice out this way for something in it’s price range that is more than 25 years old!

Eastland (not ALL of Eastland) will become a popular choice for people wanting to be closer in to town and wanting a bigger yard. I am talking about those bigger houses off of Eastland Parkway near Winchester Road. There use to be nothing past Eastland until Hamburg. Now that Summerfield and Patchen Wilkes neighborhoods have been built, I think the perception of this area has changed. Now people see only the positive of being 5 minutes to Hamburg and 5 minutes to downtown. They call this the “Hamburg area” instead of the “North end”. There are not too many neighborhoods in town where you get the old and new so close. Ok, some of you may have noticed that this post is about 40509/Hamburg and Eastland is in 40505…..but it is just 500 feet from 40509!!

Bluegrass Wilkes is a neighborhood that use to be on nobody’s radar. Do you even know where it is?? I use to wonder why anybody would build a neighborhood behind all those fast food places off the interstate. Now, it is right across from Hamburg and people are considering Winchester Road to be within the boundaries of the “Good” side of town. Since these houses are very affordable, I don’t see a huge value increase, but I can see more people considering it verses Timber Creek or anything up and down Liberty Road.

Summerfield is no doubt super hot right now. I think that will continue. Like Eastland, there aren’t many parts of town where you can get to both downtown and a major new retail mecca depending on if you drive 5 minutes left or 5 minutes right as you leave your neighborhood. If you want a new/newer house in such a location….it is your only choice. See, most of Lexington’s main arteries developed consistently over time. You start from downtown and drive out and you can see the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s and 2000’s. Not Winchester Road. It pretty much stopped in the mid 70’s and then you have brand new stuff. I think that is cool and probably why that neighborhood has been so successful.

Andover Hills and Andover Forest will always be super nice, but everybody already knows that!

I do wonder what 2038 will look like. I guess Ball Homes will have neighborhoods clear out to the Clark County line. The most desirable schools will be on this side of town. Traffic will increase. Roads will be widened. Why do I think all this? Because that is what has happened in south Lexington for the past 25 years until we ran out of room to build.

Seller’s Market Still? Nope

by John Rice

The last 12 months has been crazy. A year ago, the market was still terrible. Six months ago, it was red hot. Now? Well, it is cooling off. Don’t worry, I don’t think it is going to get worse it is just that…..well, just keep reading.

Let me start by saying I am the canary in the coal mine. I got into this business in early 2005. My first listing was one that statistically should have sold quickly. I was a newbie, but I remember thinking it wasn’t going like it should. Well, it was because the market was slowing down only nobody really knew it at the time. Hindsight IS 20/20.

Fastforward to the end of last year. I said that the bottom of the market had been reached…..at least in/around Lexington. ALL of 2013 until the past few months has been red hot. We had such a shortage of listings that houses were selling as soon as they hit the market. Realtors were begging other realtors on our Facebook group to let them know if they had new listings coming up soon because they could not find a house for their buyers. It was the first time I have ever seen anything like that. Something that I found interesting was that despite how hot the market was and all the multiple offers, I didn’t see many buyers going over the asking price. Back in the super hot days of the early 2000’s, going over the asking price was the norm in multiple offers. Guess the sting of the housing slump still had buyers a bit cautious.

So, while you are reading headlines and seeing on the news that sales are way up compared to last year, let me tell you what is happening at this very moment. Monthly sales are DOWN about 25% compared to each month this year through July. Sure, some of that is because it always slows down when school starts. Most people with families want to be in their new place before school starts in August. I am not seeing agents begging other agents to let them know when a new listing is about to hit the market. My Realtor friends aren’t posting how crazy the market is. When I look through the daily pending sales, fewer of them got contracts in the first week on the market.

I think the rising interest rates and rising prices is what has slowed it down so much. Think about it. You are seeing on the news that it is the best time to buy a house in forever, everybody is predicting interest rates and house values are going to go up. It just makes sense we had that frenzy earlier this year. It also makes sense that, just like the market after the First Time Buyer Tax Credits of yesteryear, you have a bit of a bust because almost everybody who was going to buy this year already did!

I think we will see it be this slow until next spring. Does that make it a bad time to sell? Not if your house is one of the best choices in it’s price range. Remember, as long as there is a buyer out there, they will always buy the best house in their price range. It just means that today is not as good of a time to be a seller as it was earlier this year.

Long story short…..we went from a buyer’s market, to a seller’s market, and now we are in a balanced market. A balanced market is one that doesn’t make the news. I bet that if it keeps up like this for 4-6 months, you’ll hardly see real estate make the news like it has for the past several years.

Why this neighborhood and not that similar one?

by John Rice

So, I am standing in the yard of one house that is in a neighborhood I recommend. My client asks what I think about the neighborhood right next to it. Both are about the same age. Both are about the same price range. Both have the same school district. I tell him I usually don’t recommend that neighborhood. He asks why.

There isn’t really anything wrong with that other neighborhood. I guess the biggest negative is that it is right beside a neighborhood that is a better choice. See, the one he asked about is a smaller neighborhood. More than half of it is just one long road. There are cars parked all over the place and people drive too fast down that long road. The neighborhood we were standing in was larger. Larger is better in the sense that it is less likely to be negatively impacted by it’s surroundings. The neighborhood I liked was also a much prettier environment. The type of place you can see people walking dogs or kids riding bikes without the hassle of speeding cars or vehicles in driveways blocking the sidewalks. If the neighborhood I liked so much was not there, then I could give that other neighborhood my blessing…..but I am always about helping people sort through stuff like that so they can make the wisest decision possible.

Don’t just find a house you like. Find a house you like in a neighborhood that you will enjoy the environment and will be attractive to buyers when it is your turn to sell.

LEXpert Neighborhood Tour: Open Gates

by John Rice

Here’s another video tour of one of my favorite neighborhoods. This is the first video with my new format. I use to drive around holding a FLIP camera and do the audio/video at the same time. I bought a new GoPro camera this year and suction cup it to the car and then add the audio later. The new camera has a wider lense, so you should be able to see more.

Let me know if you like this better!

No Day-Light Savings postcards from me

by John Rice

I never wanted to do things like most agents do. I never wanted to send people postcards reminding them of Day-Light savings. I never wanted to send people bags of seed or basketball schedules, or give out a card to everybody I met. I wanted to be a realtor. To me, that meant being into real estate and filling my days doing real estate things rather than licking stamps trying to remind people I was a realtor. They told me it was a numbers game and you had to do stuff like that to remind your past clients that you were there. I told them if I did such a lousy job that my clients don’t want to use me again without having to be reminded, then I don’t deserve their business.

It’s been 8 years since I made the choice to not wear my friends, family, and clients out with reminders of who I am. I ordered a box of 1000 business cards in 2009 when I switched to RE/MAX. I think I still have close to 900 of them. They are on a shelf in my garage. I don’t even stick them in my Christmas cards. It is just not who I am.

I’ve always got some repeat work and almost all my clients enthusiastically have said they’d use me again. I always hoped they would, but moving is not something most people do all that often. So, it has taken until now to see that my style has paid off. I’ll be closing my 41st sale of the year this Friday. Of those 41 deals, 25 of them have been past clients or referrals from past clients. That is pretty rare for agents. I know because one of my favorite past times is to look at the history of a fresh sale to see if the listing agent was the buyer’s agent when the house last sold. I don’t see that it goes down that way often. I have only had 4 clients not use me again. Two were because they did a short sale and another was because their daughter got her real estate license. I know because I just looked though all of my sales to see if any of my buyers have listed their house since I sold it to them.

So, I am happy to say that it is possible to build a good real estate business exclusively on being a good realtor and wanting the best for my clients. I’ve had a wonderful career so far. Better than I ever imagined it could be…..but what makes me the proudest is that so many people have, on their own initiative, used more again or told their friends about me. And while I am here, I have to give a shout out to JD and Kristi who have used me 6 times and would have used me a 7th time this year had the house they wanted had a better foundation.

I think I had a post similar to this a few months ago, but it has been on my mind a lot lately.