real

Why you shouldn’t care about average days on market

by John Rice

I met with a cool family a few weeks ago. They were going to interview a handful of realtors. I’m always a little freaked out at listing presentations. See, there are agents that come with power point presentations full of market wide data available to every realtor in town, and then blurt out something like “After looking at the statistics for this neighborhood, your house will sell at 5:46 P.M. next Tuesday.” That impresses some people I guess. I’m not one of those that throws out a bunch of statistics. I kind of like to look at the house, assess the positives and negatives that I think buyers will see, then do a market analysis to find what I think the house is worth. I usually do all this wearing a pair of shorts and sandals, often forgetting to give the people my business card. I ordered 5000 back in 2016 and still have about 4983.

Why don’t I worry much about DOM and other statistics? It is because I am only dealing with one house. Yep. That’s right. The only numbers I care about are the ones for your house. We never really know when your Buyer will arrive. All we can do is price it realistically, make it look as great as possible, and present it well online.  When I get such a seller, their house usually sells quickly.

So, back to the listing appointment. I’m on the tour of the house and the husband asked me the average DOM question. I told him that I didn’t even look at that because I don’t care how long it took other houses to sell in the recent past, I only care about how long it is going to take his house to sell right now. As soon as I said that, I knew I either had this listing or I had just totally blown it.

Fortunately this cool couple saw my point and went with me.

What are escrows & WHY did my mortgage go up?

by John Rice

Welcome to homeownership.

If you are new to this, there is a day coming in your future that happens to everybody who owns their home.

You will be having a perfectly ordinary day. Your life will be going swell. You’ve been excited because the value of your home is going up according to the zestimate, which you frequently check.

Then you go to the mailbox or check your email. You’ve got something from your lender. It’s called an escrow analysis and has a bunch of numbers all over the place. It is almost as confusing as your cell phone bill and all those stupid docs you signed when you bought your house. You have no idea what it all means. All you know is that it says your mortgage payment is going up starting in a couple of months.

There goes that perfectly ordinary day you were having.

Can they do this to you? Yes they can. Here is why and how it all works:

In case you didn’t know, the escrow account is for money you give the mortgage company within your monthly payment to budget for the property taxes and homeowner’s insurance. When those annual bills come due, the mortgage company pays them on your behalf.

Here are the reasons why your mortgage payment may increase due to escrow accounts:

1. The assessed value of the house increased. This is when the PVA looks at houses that have sold around your house and thinks the value of your house has gone up. It’s a good news/bad news thing when this happens. It means your net-worth just went up but also means you’ve gotta pay more in taxes when they increase the assessed value. You will get a letter from the PVA when/if this happens. They have the right to do so annually and there is an appeal process.

2. The tax rate increased. The amount of taxes you pay is a simple math problem. It is your assessed value multiplied by the tax rate. If your assessed value did not change but the tax rate went up…..well, you’re paying more in taxes.

3. Your homeowners insurance went up. (This is happening all over due to the crazy storms we have had.)

4. There was a shortage of funds in the escrow accounts to pay the taxes and homeowner’s insurance. 

The mortgage company collects this money over the course of the year so they have enough in the escrow accounts to pay the property taxes and homeowners insurance on your behalf. If the projected expenses for next year exceed what you are currently paying into those accounts, they can raise the amount you pay into escrow every month to make sure they have enough to pay those bills when they come due. Should you have one year when there is an excess amount left over, the amount you pay for escrow accounts could go down, making your mortgage payment less.

5. And the last reason is sometimes it can be a combination of any of the above reasons.

I sure hope this helps make sense of something that is not at all fun to deal with!

Which is better? Older or newer homes?

by John Rice

I often get asked by buyers if they should buy an older house or a newer house. My usual response is to say that it depends on what kind of problems they want to have. I get crazy looks when I say that, but it is just my way of telling them that all houses will have problems. If you don’t have one now, just wait because your newer house will become an older house quicker than you think. Basically, it is your house verses Mother Nature and Father Time……and those parents usually win.

I have lived in both older and newer houses all my life. When I was a kid, I went from a 1910ish four square to a 3-year-old ranch. Next, my parents bought a house in Kenwick  from the 1930s. My first house was built around 1915. My second was 1973. Then from 1997 and 1986, plus a collection of rentals built from the 1940s through 2006. All of them had things to deal with. 

There seems to be this misconception that old houses were built better. True, MOST were built with more care than today’s homes are. I say most because my first house, the one built around 1915, was nowhere near as well-built as my parent’s Kenwick house from the 1930s. I thought it would be, but once I moved in, I started to realize it wasn’t.

Old House misconception #2 has to do with today. Many people think that any older house is better than any newer house is today. After living in a lot of older houses and showing a bunch to my clients, I can tell you that what it comes down to is maintenance. Even the best built house from yesterday will be nothing but trouble today if somebody didn’t keep it up. Remember, an older house has been in the ring with Father Time for more rounds than a newer house will have.

Here are some of the common old house issues: Inadequate electrical, plumbing, insulation, lack of maintenance, and poorly done improvements to any of those prior items.

Newer house issues: Rushed construction by unskilled/uncaring workers sums it all up the best. I have a friend whose house was practically rebuilt after a fire. It had no insulation on one side of the house because the drywall contractors showed up before the insulation contractors were done. On my house from 1997, poor mortar joints on a brick window sill allowed water to run down the inside of the brick veneer and rot some of the sill plate. I only found it out when I did the demo for a new floor in 2010 when it was only a 13 year old house. If today’s workers would apply to their trade the same care they use to draw naked women in their potapotties, we would have the best built houses of all time!

Occasionally I do see both a really well-built newer home and a fantastic older home. I represented a builder who did a great job of making decisions that the buyer wouldn’t even begin to appreciate for years to come. He did a lot of little things way above minimum code. I also just sold an older house that had been well maintained and had recently been overhauled by a good contractor. That combination made it a pretty unique older home and a good pick…..I guess that buyer got the best of both worlds and none of the negatives!

Can it be both a Seller’s Market & a Buyer’s Market?

by John Rice

I was on the phone with a good friend of mine who is an agent with my office. As usual, we got to chatting about what the market is like right now.

I said that it seems like we are back to a more normal market where the best of the best listing are still going fast and sometimes for over the list price, while everything else is just sitting on the market waiting for a buyer to even notice it is for sale.

I then when on to postulate that this was due to the COVID market. Back then, the new listings of the day were the pending sales of the next day. Instead of Days on the Market, it was more like Hours on the Market. Every house seemed to sell immediately so there was no need to keep mental track of what was on the market. I think that got buyers and their agents in the habit of only looking at new listings and those with fresh price reductions. If a buyer or their agent wasn’t impressed with the house when it was a new listing or had just gotten a price reduction, it is like it disappeared. It was forgotten forever. It has always been hard to get people to revisit a stale listing, but it got even harder after COVID.

I think I went on and on for a little while longer. Then my good friend said he had heard somebody say this about the current market: “The first 10 days a house is on the market, it is a Seller’s Market. After that it is a Buyer’s Market.”

I told him I thought this was an incredibly simple way of explaining where and why the market is where it is right now. Then I went on to tell him that with me being so wordy, I would probably take 500 words to explain that to somebody……..which I apparently did in only the first 225 words of this post!

Last nail in the coffin for the Pandemic era market

by John Rice

All throughout real estate history, we have had value differences due to location. Similar houses in the best locations got top dollar and the less desirable locations were worth less.

Except for the COVID era market.

During the pandemic, supply was so short and demand was so strong that pretty much the same house would sell for the same price regardless of things like what part of town it was in, what school district it was in, and even what condition the house was in.

This was especially true for the more affordable houses. Back then, a small 3 bedroom, 1 bath house without a garage was going for about $200k regardless of whether it was in a Grade A, Grade B or Grade C location. That was because the market was so tight that people didn’t have a choice in location. Buyers were shopping all over town, looking at any house in their price range. There were so many buyers doing this that location didn’t seem to matter much. It was about getting a house, not getting a house where you want it to be.

We’re not wearing masks. Rates aren’t 3%. That crazy market is in the past now.

Now that we are starting to see some houses staying on the market for more than a few hours, it’s back to location being important. As this happens, I think we will see the Grade A neighborhood prices remain stable. The Grade B and Grade C locations that recently had been getting the Grade A money…..well, they aren’t any longer. That is one reason we are seeing so many price reductions now. It just shows that the market is returning to normal. It isn’t crashing.

Back during the pandemic, I would have people ask me what a house was worth. I would tell them I can easily determine what it is worth, but the value and the sale price were not related for that brief time. I would tell my Buyers to view the sale price as paying what the house was worth plus a “Convenience Fee” for winning the house in multiple offers. Now that we aren’t seeing multiple offers on every single new listing, we are back to a house’s value and its sale price being the same.