lexington news

My crystal ball was clear that day

by John Rice

In the long-range, Lexington will eventually use all of its available land.  When that happens I think we’ll start to see a huge price difference between Lexington and the surrounding towns.  When the land becomes that valuable, we’ll see a lot of what are now cheap areas redeveloped.

That is what I said 7 years ago yesterday and it is happening.  I know this thanks to Facebook’s “On this Day” feature.  Besides being reminded that I had sushi for lunch with my wife on February 4th in 2013, I found an old blog post that was mainly about downtown.

All this is happening because there practically is no affordable housing in Lexington.  Builders have given up on the first time buyer market because the land costs them so much.  Why would they use their expensive land to build small/plain houses when there is so much money to be made building expensive/upscale houses?

We have practically built out to the urban service area……..aka the city limits.  There are few big tracts of land for the big builders to obtain.

That has forced buyers and investors into areas that 10 years ago were undesirable.  Downtown is a prime example because that is where the cheap land is….or was?

The Distillery District, between the time it was actually distilleries and trendy businesses, sat empty and was mostly industrial businesses and junkyards.  There were probably more rats than people down there on any given day back then.

The Newtown Pike extension is connecting Main Street to South Broadway right through a really depressing area of Lexington that few people ever knew existed.  Meanwhile, all the old tobacco warehouses along South Broadway are gone with apartments and businesses taking their place.

Then there is all the activity on the north end of downtown.  Jefferson Street.  NoLi. Midland Avenue.  Cool restaurants, bars and old housing stock.

Heck, even Cardinal Valley and many north end neighborhoods are becoming an acceptable location to young first times buyers with a tight budget wanting to live in this expensive town.

Many people will think all this is happening because people want to return to the urban core.  Lexington isn’t big enough to have true suburbs.  Plus, you can get to downtown from any where in any traffic within 30 minutes.   So I don’t think that is the main reason.  I think the reason is because infill projects and fixing up cheap houses are the only options for a town that is always growing and has run out of space.

 

The peas and carrots can touch now

by John Rice

It was 1987.  A friend of mine lived in a brand new house in Cumberland Hills.  It was gorgeous and seemed huge to me.  I lived in a Bungalow in the first block of Kenwick.  His parents paid $148,500.  Two years earlier my parents paid $58k.

Today, if equally updated, the Cumberland Hills house might be worth $300k.  Our 1920s bungalow would pull around $400k.

My how things change.

Lexington has always been a town of either older or newer houses.  You had Chevy Chase and Ashland Park if you wanted a nice older house.  You had Greenbrier and Westmoreland if you wanted to pretend you lived in the country.  Everything else was generic new construction of various price ranges or older affordable houses.  You didn’t see much variety of prices within a neighborhood either.  If Lexington was a plate of food, it was the plate of that person we all know who doesn’t like any of their food to touch.

Today, it seems like it is okay for the peas to touch the carrots and some of the gravy to run on the roll.

An incredibly renovated house on Lakeshore Drive listed for $1,200,000 sells as soon as it hits the market and it is surrounded by mostly $500-600k houses.

A house on Townley in Meadowthorpe sells for $275k.  This is one of the highest prices EVER in Meadowthorpe.  Townley had always been the most affordable street in the neighborhood.

The renovated houses on Rand Ave sell for about $170 a square foot.  Very little of Lexington gets that kind of money per square foot.

There is more and more interest in living downtown.

The north end of Lexington seems to be losing it’s stigma as being the “Bad” side of town.

The Hamburg area seems to be equal to the southwest side of Lexington in terms of housing stock, good performing schools and retail/dining/entertainment.

I think all of this is a good thing.  I think there are a lot of factors driving all the change in the market, all happening at once.  We’ve got first time Millennials transforming downtown and several affordable north end neighborhoods.  Downsizing boomers are wanting smaller homes closer in town, selling their bigger houses on bigger lots to Gen Xers.  The market is good.  People are in a mood to move.  We’ve almost run out of room to build, so we are seeing more of an interest in renovating existing houses.

Who knows….maybe in another 30 years that Cumberland Hills house may be worth more than my old Kenwick house again?

3 ways to win in multiple offers

by John Rice

Almost all my listings this year have sold in multiple offers.  That was something to brag about several years ago, but now it is pretty much the norm if the house is priced right from the beginning.

One listing had 7 offers the first day on the market.  Everybody wants the same house these days.

Since only one buyer can get the house, that means that there are others buyers who lost out.  It’s a tough time to be a buyer.

Since my work is almost always split 50-50 between sellers and buyers, want to know how to get the house you want and send all those other buyers off to fight over another one?

  1.  To begin with, go in strong.  There is a difference between overpaying for a house and offering 100% of what it is worth.  An agent should look at the comparable sales and know the value. You are going to pay top dollar for any decent property right now, so write an offer that the seller is likely to just accept.  The more time you waste on negotiating gives other buyers a chance to take the house from you.  Your battle is with the other buyers, not the sellers.  On my listing with 7 offers, we didn’t even consider any of them that had a contingency to sell or those that came in less than full price.  When you have so many good choices, a buyer can often be rejected over something minor.  When I have the buyer, I like to ask the listing agent how they want to receive the offer.  Most of us use an electronic signature program, but some agents don’t.  I mainly ask to show that I am going to be easy to work with.  Keep in mind it is like speed dating for the listing agent-they only have so much time to deal with each offer and the buyer’s agent.  I want to make it as easy as possible for them to pick my client.
  2. Don’t do anything wonky.  If the seller didn’t offer to leave their curtains, then don’t ask for them.  Don’t ask for early possession.  Don’t ask for more time than is normal for the inspections to take place.  This market is not one where you test the seller….unless you want to remain homeless.  A good, clean, simple offer is what all listing agents are wanting.
  3. Think like a seller.  Most sellers these days expect to get around full price for their houses, some even get a little more.  Believe it or not, few sellers actually care about the absolute highest offer.  Usually, the highest offers are really close, so what becomes important are the secondary terms.  The seller is concerned about your financing, so have a preapproval letter from a reputable lender.  They care about how the inspection goes, so schedule it as soon as possible.  The less time they have to worry about that, the better you look.  They care about the closing date, so be as flexible as possible.  I always ask the listing agent when the seller would like to close.  A lot of the time the seller has another closing to coordinate.

You know, I’ve been doing this for 11 years.  It is still awkward for me to write this advice.  It wasn’t too many years ago I was telling sellers how to attract buyers in a tough buyer’s market.  I was telling buyers how to bring a seller to their knees and beg you to buy their house for probably less than they paid for it.  Times change though, and this is where we are now.  And this is what you’ve got to do to get a house today.

 

Where is the market RIGHT NOW

by John Rice

Ok.  It has happened.  I think we have hit a ceiling with real estate prices in and around Lexington.

The market has slowed down a bit in the past few weeks.  You can get a photographer or home inspector quicker than you can a neurosurgeon lately.  Could be because 15% of the whole town is on vacation on any given week this summer.  Could be more than a normal seasonal slowdown?

Slowing down isn’t a bad thing, so don’t freak out.  This is kind of like when you are doing 100 MPH and slow down to 80.

I am starting to see more price reductions than I have in the past 6-8 months too.  I don’t think that values for those houses have declined.  I think that sellers were pushing prices higher and higher and buyers are pushing back a little now.  Mr. Overly-Optimistic Seller, you won’t be getting above market value for your house.

It all reminds me of early 2013.  That is when the market made a sudden shift from bad to good.  For about 6 months there it seemed like houses were selling as soon as they hit the market and prices were going up for the first time in years.  The market changed so fast it reminded me of being a kid on a swing and somebody giving you a swift push that causes you to hold on tight as your neck snaps backwards.

The rest of 2013, all of 2014 and 2015 were good markets, but less frenzied.  Then early 2016 gets crazy again.  It was the first time in my career of over 11 years that I waited in line to show houses.  If the frenzy is over, that is one thing I won’t miss!

Neighborhoods that benefited the most from school district changes

by John Rice

I get a lot of questions about school districts and property values.  Most of the time there is nothing to worry about unless your neighborhood goes from having average/above average schools to getting ones that are worse.    A lateral move doesn’t really matter.  The best situation is when you have poorer performing schools and get better ones….which is the topic of today’s blog post.

Here are the top 3 winners in my opinion.  The biggest changes in the district boundaries were in the Hamburg/40509 area, so these are all out that way:

3.  The Home Place/Gleneagles.  The cat got out of the bag early on this one.  The school district bought land in this area and everybody knew that these 2 neighborhoods would go to the new school.  Suddenly it became a more desirable place to buy and prices went up.

2.  Greenbrier.  Several years ago I would get the same feedback from my buyers after showing houses in this neighborhood.  They would say “I love the neighborhood and all the space out here, but I don’t have $100k to renovate this house AND pay for private school.”  So, they wouldn’t buy it.  Now that “The Brier” is getting the new elementary and new high school, houses are selling and being renovated.

1.  Chilesburg.  Use to be only the first phase of that neighborhood went to Athens-Chilesburg Elementary (A.C.E.).  It never really made any sense since the school was right in the middle of the neighborhood.  The neighborhood got the school and prices have really gone up.  Use to be if you were in the mid $200k range and wanted that school, Andover Hills was your only option.  There use to be a big gap between similar sized houses in these two neighborhoods.  Not any more.  Chilesburg can pull the same money per sqaure foot as Andover Hills can now.  A 2500 square foot 4 bedroom house in Chilesburg use to be about $190-225k several years ago.  Practically the same floor plan in Andover Hills was getting $225-245k.  Now both are in the $245-255k range.