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What will 2026 be like?

by John Rice

I think it will be like 2008. Don’t panic though. Next year shouldn’t be like the 2009 market.

In 2008, we were starting to feel the market slow down. It peaked in 2005 just as it did a couple years ago. We were all in denial back then, hoping what we were seeing in California and Arizona would not come here. It did, but not as severe. The Lexington/Bluegrass market has always been pretty stable and resiliant.

So, by 2008 we were seeing a lot of price reductions. A lot of rising inventory. Only the best houses were selling fast. A seller had to do some prep work to make their house stand out. Many sellers were in denial because they had bought in a frenzy. They were shocked not to have a line of buyers wanting their house the first day on the market. Being a realtor began to be a real job that required skills where you really need to know the market, know how to negotiate, and know how to present a house so it stands out among all the competing listings.

I would normally use this paragraph to contrast 2008 to the current market. Since it is identical, just go back up there and substitute 2026 where I wrote 2008.

Don’t worry though. There are no signs of a coming crash. This slow down is driven by lack of demand due to affordability. Back then, the market crashed due to bad mortgages causing forclosures.

I think the rest of this year will see little appreciation, frustrated sellers, cautious buyers and a lot of realtors getting out of the business.

Selling a house is like middle school gym class

by John Rice

I was that kid in middle school that was always picked last in gym class. You know the drill. Two team Captains (Buyers) pick their team (Houses) until there is only one left and that person gets picked by default. Don’t feel bad for me though…….I’m sure the past 40 years has been better for me than for most of those picked before me.

The real estate market is very similar to what we’ve all experienced in gym class. Buyers organize the houses in order of preference. Naturally, they are most interested in move-in ready houses that are priced right. Then they move down the list to those that are less desirable.  Sellers want to be picked sooner rather than later. Think “Days on Market.”

Once the Captains are chosen, that is like the beginning of the house hunting season. The Captains pick those they think will be the best. Once those kids are on a team, they are “Sold” and not available anymore. All a Captain can do is pick the most desirable kid from what is left. Once the best one has been picked, the second best one becomes the new best choice. That is until it was just me standing there and the Captain says my name with the enthusiasm as if he had just heard the cafeteria was serving goulash for lunch.

Right now, we are in the time of year where not many new listings are hitting the market. It’s kind of like when there are only about 6 kids left from the whole class. These are the ones that maybe nobody really wants, but the next kid that gets picked is going to be the best of those that are left. There are many sellers right now with average to below average houses that will get contracts simply because there are no better choices for a buyer right now. I always say that fall is the best time to get rid of  house that nobody has wanted all spring and summer, which I guess is my whole point.

 On a side note, the only time I ever got picked any higher than dead last was when it was for volleyball. See, I am left-handed. When I serve, the ball always goes on the opposite side of the court from where it lands when most people serve. Everybody on the other team was always caught off guard. Nobody ever noticed the pattern of where the ball would go when I served. Come to think of it, that is one of the first times I ever realized the benefit of zigging when most people zag and zagging when most people zig.

Selling? What you like doesn’t matter

by John Rice

A long time ago, my wife decided she wanted a Subaru Outback. We looked at a few on used car lots. I did a lot of research to find out what trim level we had to get for her to have the sunroof and heated leather seats that she wanted. There really weren’t a lot of used Outbacks in or around Lexington at that time. This was so long ago that I found a classified ad in a newspaper that said “2008 Subaru Outback, SI Drive” with the price and the seller’s phone number. That was it. Not a lot of info to work with. Definitely nothing to make the guy’s phone start ringing. But to me, this car having SI Drive told me a whole lot more about it. Having done the research, I knew that was only offered on the top trim level. It had the giant sunroof, heated leather seats, and the bigger engine. When we went to see the car, the seller kept talking about the SI Drive. I could tell it was very important to him.

A lot of home sellers are like that too. They want to focus on what is important to them when selling their house, rather than focusing on things that are important to the buyer. I see it a lot in the marketing material of For Sale by Owner listings. I once read a flyer where the seller spent a lot of space talking about how level the sidewalks are.

About this same time, I sold a house to a family that I have since become friends with. They found the house by driving around the neighborhood. They would have never come to see it if they had only seen it online. Why? Because of the marketing remarks. Instead of mentioning the hardwood floors, instead of mentioning that one of the upstairs bedrooms was huge, or that there were bedrooms on both levels of the house, or that the backyard was an awesome park-like oasis, the realtor used that space to tell you that the exterior was maintenance free, that the curtains stayed with the house, and that there was an allowance for water-proofing the basement as well as mitigating radon. The marketing remarks could only have been better if they said  “Must see! You get to keep the seller’s curtains AND fix some major problems with this house, but at least you’ll never have to paint the outside!! NOT a drive by!”

The hardest thing about real estate is getting sellers to think like a buyer and a buyer to think like a seller. I think if that ever were to happen, I’d probably be out of a job! Being a realtor these days is as much about mediation, negotiation and understanding differing perspectives as it is about houses.

BTW, “SI Drive” is a feature that has 3 settings for throttle response and transmission shift points.

What I like about a contingency contract

by John Rice

Well, I don’t really like them, but there is a good side to this type of contract if you are the seller.  Guess what it is? The buyer will typically pay you more with a contingency to sell their house first than they would without it.

I see it all the time. A buyer with a house to sell gets really nervous about not knowing where they will be living once they sell their old home. Now, unless the buyer already has a contract on the house they are selling, I always counter back with a kickout clause.  That basically means that IF the seller would like to sell the house to another buyer who does not have a contingency, they give the contingency buyer a certain amount of time to remove the contingency or back out of the deal. 

Another thing I like is that IF the contingency buyer can and does remove their contingency,  you have a back up buyer. Sometimes it helps when negotiating repairs if the buyer knows there is somebody else wanting the house if the deal falls apart!

I don’t really care for this kind of contract though when I am working with a buyer…..for all the same reasons. When I have a buyer who wants to write a contingency offer, I usually try to get them to just wait until we sell their house first. Here is why I don’t think they are a good idea for the buyer who can’t possibly remove the contingency if needed: Any decent realtor is going to counter back with a kickout clause. That means that if another buyer comes along they will lose the house. If no such buyer comes along, that means that the house would still be there when the buyer’s old house eventually sells, and they could probably strike a better deal at that point.

What 2 things make any house sell fast?

by John Rice

We are in a market now that feels like two markets: One where a house gets multiple offers the first day and the other where a house lingers on the market forever.

Want to know the 2 things that will put you in the better half of this market? Price and Presentation…..If you get those two things right, you don’t need anything else to sell a house. Those are the hardest things to get right though, so most realtors focus on the minor things like open houses, fancy brochures, TikTok videos….you know, you’ve seen it all too. See, if you don’t know what price a buyer will consider fair for a house nor do you know how to make the listing stand out among other similar houses, that’s all you have left.

I once sold a house for a friend who lives out of the country. He trusts me and knows I know what I am doing. He gave me free reign to get his place sold.

He had rented it out for a few years, so it was a little rough on the eye. It needed a fresh vibe or we just weren’t going to be able to sell it for anywhere near its potential.

Soooo, I had the house painted and the carpet cleaned. We replaced the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms. We then had the main rooms staged with furniture that would appeal to the typical first time buyer.

Want to know what happened next? Well, we sold it. Yep. Didn’t take long either. Multiple offers too.

Was  this a special house? Not really. Did we price it too low? Nope. Can this be duplicated? Yes and no. See, what made this such a success was that the seller was willing to do everything I told him to do in order to sell his house. I hate to say this, but what ultimately makes a sale successful is the seller. No amount of advertising or positive thinking makes a house sell. The best realtor can’t sell a place that doesn’t show well. It really takes a good seller who is willing to take the advice of a good realtor.