real estate predictions

“How long will it take to sell my House?”

by John Rice

I get asked this on every listing appointment. It is hard to believe that a couple of years ago, it was rare for any house in any condition to make it past the first day on the market. I usually don’t reply with an amount of time, but with a sequence of events that need to happen to attract a buyer. The honest to goodness truth is that any house should sell pretty quickly if the seller will do some prep work. Granted, there are exceptions…..Two million dollar house? Will take time since there aren’t many buyers in that price range. A unique house? May need a unique buyer. An overpriced house? Will usually only sell to an idiot with a realtor who thinks we are still in the 2022 market.

I’ve been doing this a long time. This is how it usually goes in this changing market. I see the house. I ask the sellers if they are able to do any work that needs done to attract buyers. Buyers want as move in ready as possible and for the best price right now…..well, I guess they always have but now they have more listings to chose from and sellers can no longer just put their house on the market without a little prep work. Sometimes the seller can’t/won’t do anything. If they can’t/won’t, I tell them the price I think their house will sell for just like it is. Usually though, the seller picks a few items from the list. We put it on the market. They get positive feedback for the things they have done. They get negative feedback for the remaining items on the list.  After awhile, the seller starts to realize that they are going to have to do more items on that list or reduce the price. Often, buyers subtract about 5 times the cost for the remaining items on the list. I’ve been on the buyer side of this. They almost always say something like “If I have to paint this whole house I’m not paying a penny more than $XXX,XXX!!”  or “I would need to replace all the carpet and I like hardwood, so let’s just subtract the cost of hardwood from the asking price and go from there.” Can’t blame them. After all, it is turning into their market these days.

Eventually, the seller plugs away at the list until it sells. See, there is the sequence of events I mentioned at the beginning of this post. Now that the house is ready, it is going to sell because it is competitive and will almost always fall on the short list of a buyer.

But what happens to the people who do everything on the list from the beginning and price it correctly? Their house usually sells very quickly. Why? Because buyers want the best house for their money. Make your house THAT house, and start packing.

The market is changing

by John Rice

No doubt, there has been a shift this year.

Few sellers have to move. Most just want to. None of them are excited about being a buyer if they need to finance their next home. They don’t want to give up their very low interest rate they got during COVID. They are upset that they can no longer expect to sell their house the first day on the market, get above list price, and the buyer waive a home inspection.

Buyers are only buying if they really need to move. They don’t like the combination of high prices and high interest rates. They have more choices and power in the transaction than ever, but they can’t see the forest for the trees.

First time buyers account for the lowest percentage of buyers in forever. Most first time buyers seem to want to skip the small, boring most affordable houses and rent until they can afford what we used to call the “Move up” house. This is leaving most houses under $250k to investors. Almost every super affordable house I have sold this year has been purchased by an investor. Even in multiple offers, they are easier to work with and will often pay the most for a house.

Basically nobody is happy.

This is the first time in my 20 year career of seeing such pessimism from both sellers and buyers in a fairly good market. The only other time I have seen both parties this discouraged is during the Great Recession. It was an extreme Buyer’s Market so sellers were unhappy. Buyers were worried their house would be worth less than they paid for it after the closing. Nobody was happy.

I think we are stuck here for a while. I don’t see prices going up much in the near future and I don’t see them going down either. I don’t see interest rates going down enough to make much of a difference. I think this is just the new normal.

Is a view worth less if it is not as good?

by John Rice

I was driving through the new Peninsula neighborhood the other day. It is over off Richmond Road and backs to the reservoir. I could see the back of the houses on Dew Court, Rain Court and Coolwater Court. For decades the owners of those house have had a rare and fantastic view of the water and the woods where there are now these new houses.

But that has changed. The water is still there of course. The woods are gone.

Question is this: Are those older houses worth less since the view is not as good?

To those owners who have enjoyed the “Old” view, I am sure it is not as good now. They probably think these new houses have impacted the value of their homes. I totally get that vibe. I dealt with something similar. I used to have a peek-a-boo view of the Greenbrier Golf Course from my last home. Across the fairway was a beautiful hillside full of trees. About 6 months after I moved in, I heard bulldozers clearing the hillside. Now there is a neighborhood there. While I did not like the new view as much as the old one, it was still a view. It just didn’t extend past the golf course now.

And that is exactly what the 1980s houses have. They still have a fabulous water view. I mean, the new houses are going to be extremely desirable being on the water and they have the houses from the 80s on the other side of the water in their view. There is no reason to think that somehow the market is going to like the 1980s houses less because they now have a view of the new houses across the water, right?

Something else to consider. Whenever the 1980s houses come up for sale in the furture, no buyer is going to know that the view was better before the new neighborhood was built. All they will know is what is currently there, which is a very rare water view.

Can’t afford Lansdowne? Pick these neighborhoods

by John Rice

Love the Tates Creek area, and I mean the part with the 40502 zip code? Want a house built in the middle of the last century? Lansdowne is likely your dream spot to be. And for good reason. Those giant lots and large homes have been fantastic since Day 1.

But if you’re looking at financing most of the $600k to million dollar plus purchase price and your budget says “No Bueno”, What do you do? Stay where you are and be unhappy?

No, you look in Lans-Merik since it is right across Tates Creek Road from Lansdowne. Here you will get almost as large of a lot and the houses are mostly from the 1970s but it has a similar vibe. Think of it as “Lansdowne Lite”. You will end up spending between $450k to maybe just over $700k for the best ones that back to the park.

$450k too much? While it is technically not in the 40502 zip code, Gainesway is literally just across New Circle Road from Lans-Merik. Here you will get a 1960s home on a larger lot in the $300-450k range.

Is it turning to a Buyer’s Market?

by John Rice

Short answer: It depends on the house.

Long answer: I read an article this morning asking this same question. It had all the usual data in any article related to the nationwide real estate market. Average days on market, Average sale price compared to previous years, the number of listings compared to previous years……blah blah blah.

None of that really matters. Why? Because no two houses and no two markets are the same. There is no average house. Average means a composite of all data. It does not look at each house individually. Do you know who does look at each house individually? Buyers do.

A buyer looks at every house within their budget and decides which one they want to buy. Let’s say they look at 10 houses. They are only buying one so they pick the best one. Do you know what else happens? Usually every buyer in that same price range also picks the same best one. That means we have multiple buyers competing for the best houses on the market. Meanwhile, the rest of the houses sit there and dilute all those averages so the media can make illogical conclusions to share with the world.

I have been a realtor for 20 years. It was a Seller’s Market when I started. Then a Buyer’s Market. Then an EXTREME Buyer’s Market. Then a stable market. Then it slowly built into the strongest Seller’s Market ever. Now, more than ever, we sort of have two markets. If you want the best house in the best neighborhood, you better be prepared to go over the list price and be flexible on anything important to the seller. If you are not picky, make a low offer on one of those houses that nobody else has wanted. After 20 years of this, I can tell you that when you go to sell whatever house you decide to buy, picking the best one will always have been the wisest decision. The best houses will always be worth the most, be the easiest to sell, and will have the broadest appeal.