real estate predictions

The market is changing

by John Rice

No doubt, there has been a shift this year.

Few sellers have to move. Most just want to. None of them are excited about being a buyer if they need to finance their next home. They don’t want to give up their very low interest rate they got during COVID. They are upset that they can no longer expect to sell their house the first day on the market, get above list price, and the buyer waive a home inspection.

Buyers are only buying if they really need to move. They don’t like the combination of high prices and high interest rates. They have more choices and power in the transaction than ever, but they can’t see the forest for the trees.

First time buyers account for the lowest percentage of buyers in forever. Most first time buyers seem to want to skip the small, boring most affordable houses and rent until they can afford what we used to call the “Move up” house. This is leaving most houses under $250k to investors. Almost every super affordable house I have sold this year has been purchased by an investor. Even in multiple offers, they are easier to work with and will often pay the most for a house.

Basically nobody is happy.

This is the first time in my 20 year career of seeing such pessimism from both sellers and buyers in a fairly good market. The only other time I have seen both parties this discouraged is during the Great Recession. It was an extreme Buyer’s Market so sellers were unhappy. Buyers were worried their house would be worth less than they paid for it after the closing. Nobody was happy.

I think we are stuck here for a while. I don’t see prices going up much in the near future and I don’t see them going down either. I don’t see interest rates going down enough to make much of a difference. I think this is just the new normal.

Is a view worth less if it is not as good?

by John Rice

I was driving through the new Peninsula neighborhood the other day. It is over off Richmond Road and backs to the reservoir. I could see the back of the houses on Dew Court, Rain Court and Coolwater Court. For decades the owners of those house have had a rare and fantastic view of the water and the woods where there are now these new houses.

But that has changed. The water is still there of course. The woods are gone.

Question is this: Are those older houses worth less since the view is not as good?

To those owners who have enjoyed the “Old” view, I am sure it is not as good now. They probably think these new houses have impacted the value of their homes. I totally get that vibe. I dealt with something similar. I used to have a peek-a-boo view of the Greenbrier Golf Course from my last home. Across the fairway was a beautiful hillside full of trees. About 6 months after I moved in, I heard bulldozers clearing the hillside. Now there is a neighborhood there. While I did not like the new view as much as the old one, it was still a view. It just didn’t extend past the golf course now.

And that is exactly what the 1980s houses have. They still have a fabulous water view. I mean, the new houses are going to be extremely desirable being on the water and they have the houses from the 80s on the other side of the water in their view. There is no reason to think that somehow the market is going to like the 1980s houses less because they now have a view of the new houses across the water, right?

Something else to consider. Whenever the 1980s houses come up for sale in the furture, no buyer is going to know that the view was better before the new neighborhood was built. All they will know is what is currently there, which is a very rare water view.

Can’t afford Lansdowne? Pick these neighborhoods

by John Rice

Love the Tates Creek area, and I mean the part with the 40502 zip code? Want a house built in the middle of the last century? Lansdowne is likely your dream spot to be. And for good reason. Those giant lots and large homes have been fantastic since Day 1.

But if you’re looking at financing most of the $600k to million dollar plus purchase price and your budget says “No Bueno”, What do you do? Stay where you are and be unhappy?

No, you look in Lans-Merik since it is right across Tates Creek Road from Lansdowne. Here you will get almost as large of a lot and the houses are mostly from the 1970s but it has a similar vibe. Think of it as “Lansdowne Lite”. You will end up spending between $450k to maybe just over $700k for the best ones that back to the park.

$450k too much? While it is technically not in the 40502 zip code, Gainesway is literally just across New Circle Road from Lans-Merik. Here you will get a 1960s home on a larger lot in the $300-450k range.

Is it turning to a Buyer’s Market?

by John Rice

Short answer: It depends on the house.

Long answer: I read an article this morning asking this same question. It had all the usual data in any article related to the nationwide real estate market. Average days on market, Average sale price compared to previous years, the number of listings compared to previous years……blah blah blah.

None of that really matters. Why? Because no two houses and no two markets are the same. There is no average house. Average means a composite of all data. It does not look at each house individually. Do you know who does look at each house individually? Buyers do.

A buyer looks at every house within their budget and decides which one they want to buy. Let’s say they look at 10 houses. They are only buying one so they pick the best one. Do you know what else happens? Usually every buyer in that same price range also picks the same best one. That means we have multiple buyers competing for the best houses on the market. Meanwhile, the rest of the houses sit there and dilute all those averages so the media can make illogical conclusions to share with the world.

I have been a realtor for 20 years. It was a Seller’s Market when I started. Then a Buyer’s Market. Then an EXTREME Buyer’s Market. Then a stable market. Then it slowly built into the strongest Seller’s Market ever. Now, more than ever, we sort of have two markets. If you want the best house in the best neighborhood, you better be prepared to go over the list price and be flexible on anything important to the seller. If you are not picky, make a low offer on one of those houses that nobody else has wanted. After 20 years of this, I can tell you that when you go to sell whatever house you decide to buy, picking the best one will always have been the wisest decision. The best houses will always be worth the most, be the easiest to sell, and will have the broadest appeal.

But don’t we need wiggle room in our list price?

by John Rice

This is one of the questions I get asked a lot when I list a house. I think I probably always freak out my sellers when I tell them that they don’t need to price their house way over what we anticipate it will sell for.

I guess the biggest fear, and I can understand it, is that people will assume that there is wiggle room, and that they are going to have to sell for less…..and that just isn’t the case.

Sure, there may be people who come along and offer waaaay less than you are asking. But you know what? I don’t consider them to be real buyers. When I was a new Realtor, I had some people that would just go from listing to listing making crazy offers. Eventually I would see the writing on the wall and I’d let them keep perpetuating their hobby without me. I doubt any of them ended up actually buying a house. Why price your house based on nuts like that? Doesn’t it make more sense to price it where it will be attractive to the people who may actually buy your house?

Check this out. Back in about 1997 I had a lawn care business. I had grown it to the point where I needed a dedicated truck. I saw an ad for a 1993 Ford F-150 with 48,000 miles on it. The price was $5980. I knew that was a good price. Took it for a test drive. Wanted it. Sat in the little cubicle with the sales man and made him an offer. He blew his chance to remind me that was a fantastic price. What he did was make it a battle. Dude told me that they “Couldn’t sell that truck for one nickel less than that price!” I was floored. Other than during COVID, don’t you always haggle when buying a car? I left to see what else was available since I couldn’t go back there without feeling like I had lost to that guy. After looking at more trucks, I realized THAT truck was by far the best one and was at the best price anywhere in town that day. I just didn’t know what to do. Soooo, I called the wisest man I know…..my Dad. I told him that the truck was the best deal and that I wanted it, but just couldn’t go back there. Being the wise person that he is, he told me to go back and offer them a nickel less. Yep. Offer $5979.95.  I did and I got the best truck at the best price that was available that day anywhere in Lexington.

Guess what? Real buyers will recognize the value of your house. They are looking at every house in their price range just like I did with that truck. Sure, we are accustomed to wiggle room, but people don’t mind paying near or full asking price if the house is worth it. Even in today’s higher interest rate market, I frequently see houses going for over the list price. I once had one where they came back twice with lower offers. We just politely said “No thank you.  Take a look at the comps. We’ve priced this house for what it is worth.” They, like me with the truck, knew it was the best available house at the best price. Here’s the difference though, I didn’t get an attitude with the other agent like my salesman did with the nickel issue. We ended up selling the house for 99.2% of the asking price. We came down just a little so the buyer would feel like they won…..but in reality, we all won that day!