neighborhood

I thought it was a seller’s market?

by John Rice

It’s been an interesting week.

I wrote an offer on a house in Frankfort that was listed at $159,500.   Looked at the comps.  Thought it was about a $147-152k house.  Seller wouldn’t budge from $156,950.  It’s been on the market for two weeks now, which is a life time in today’s market.  Even at $152k, it will be the most expensive house to ever sell in it’s neighborhood.

I showed a house last night that is listed for $187k.  The exact same model house sold 6 months ago on that same street for $180k.  Sure, lets add 2% or so for appreciation and subtract a bit because that house that already sold had granite and was nicer.  Oh, the house I showed had a 22 year old roof.  The shingles were the 3 tab kind, which usually are good for about 15-20 years.  It needs a new roof like now.  So, this one is overpriced and needs a $7k roof.  That’s a hard pill to swallow for the first time buyers in this price range, which is why it is still on the market.  BTW, in Lexington, a house in this price range would normally get multiple offers, possibly over the list price if the list price were anywhere near realistic.

I showed another house that was super nice, super pricey and only had 2 bedrooms.  I think the listing agent expected lots of offers since most houses under $200k in Lexington go fast.  The agent even put a deadline for submitting offers.  About 20 minutes after that deadline, that statement was removed.  The house is still for sale, so I guess no offers came.

So, we have 3 listings that aren’t selling in the hottest price range in the hottest market ever.

Why?

Price.  Even in a great market, you can only get market value for your house.  Market value is what a ready, willing and able buyer will pay for a house.  You can’t get over market value, which is exactly what these 3 sellers are wanting to do.

I am sure all 3 of these sellers are thinking “But I thought this was a seller’s market??”  It is, but when your price is above market value, most buyers opt to just wait for the next batch of new listings.  Dear sellers of these 3 houses, you are not drunk with power, you are just drunk.

Bluegrass market update & fun with a calculator

by John Rice

I’ve always been a number person.  When I was a kid, my dad gave me a calculator.  I would make pretend budgets, figure out things like compound interest, and do things like type 77345 and flip the calculator upside down to see that I spelled ShELL.

So I guess I am not surprised that I get excited when my local real estate board publishes the statistical info once a month.

It is also nice to see if my own experience is echoing what is happening in the whole market.  It usually is.

For example, I hardly show any houses any more because there is so little for sale.  I used to be out 3-4 nights a week and ALL weekend just showing houses.  Now I may show 4-5 a week and have the same amount of buyer clients……on a busy week.  There just aren’t enough houses to show people, and buyers are making fast decisions because they don’t want to lose a good house while waiting for a great one.

In Fayette Co, sales from Jan 18- April 18 are down 11% from the same period in 2017.  Listing are down 9%.  You’d think a decrease in sales would be bad, but since listings are down by a similar number, it is still a super tight market, especially in the sub $200k range.

All the Bluegrass counties have a big decrease in listings.  Most have an equally big decrease in sales too.  Makes sense.  If there are fewer houses to buy, there will be fewer houses sold.  Unless you are in Scott, Madison or Jessamine Counties.  Those places are the only ones where sales have increased from this same time last year while listings have decreased.  I know, I know.  How can that be?  This is just my gut, but I think those counties had more on the market last year that just sat and didn’t sell.

I also feel like I am spending more time in surrounding counties than I have in a long time.  When I first got into this business, there were a lot of people moving to Jessamine Co in search of a cheaper house.  But then gas prices went crazy and nobody in Fayette County wanted to leave.  Now gas is fairly cheap and people have returned to moving outside of Fayette Co again.  Jessamine County has the tightest market under $180k.  There is literally next to nothing for sale there.

Just this past March, we had a net loss of 61 households in Fayette County.  Scott and Jessamine Counties were the only ones that saw much of a gain in new households.  Yep, Fayette County folks are back at it.

I still play with my calculator a lot.  Only now I’m using it to determine what a house is worth before listing it or making an offer.  Maybe with all this extra time I have from not showing houses every night, I can figure out some new words my calculator will spell?

I am Superman, and I can do anything

by John Rice

“Faster than a speeding bullet! More powerful than a locomotive! Able to leap tall buildings in a single bound!”

Know who I am talking about here?  Not Superman.  I am talking about how every realtor perceives themselves.  I know because I have watched all their videos on how to choose an agent.  They say things like:

“I sold that house the first day on the market” at a time when they all sell fast.

“My team sold 30 million dollars of real estate last year” and since there are 5 agents, that means 6 million each, which isn’t that exciting.

“I have a unique marketing plan that sells houses faster and for top dollar” which would be really impressive if all houses were not selling fast and for top dollar.

“I specialize in residential, commercial, farm and investment property.”  Ok….so you specialize in EVERYTHING?

I get it.  We are all in business.  You have to self promote.

Want to know what I say?

There are many great agents out there and many more who are not.  I may be the ideal fit for you.  I may not be, and that is okay.  I once had a buyer who was interviewing agents.  I didn’t think it was going that well so I gave him the names of a few agents that I knew would take care of him.  He ended up picking me, but for a while there I didn’t think I stood a chance.  If he wasn’t going with me, I wanted him to have somebody good. That’s just the right thing to do.

So, who am I?  Probably more like Clark Kent than Superman.

I am a realist.  I am not afraid to tell you what I think.  I like to think through all your options and help you make the best decision possible.  I point out things I think you may not have noticed or thought about.  I have a lot of experience.  Nearly all of my work is repeat clients or referrals from past clients or friends.  I am not greedy.  I don’t take on more work than I can handle.  I want to give you my best and enjoy the time I spend helping you.

 

 

Want to know what BUGS me about a house?

by John Rice

You know what scares me when I see a house for sale and the seller has lived in the place for a very long time?

Termites.

For most people, the only time they think about getting termite inspections are when there is a sale involved.  While I don’t think you need annual inspections unless you just want to help your pest inspector generate revenue, you should do one at least every few years.

I was in a house last weekend that my buyer is considering making an offer on.  Well, I guess they are still interested.  I haven’t heard from them since I pointed out all the termite damage.

And there was a lot of damage.  Fortunately most of it would be easy to fix.  All you’d need is to sister a few new joists to old ones.  The damage didn’t look any higher than that.  I figure there is about $2-3k in work to be done.  A termite treatment back in the 90s would have been much cheaper.

As the husband and I were walking around in the basement using our phones to look at all the joists, he said “This is why we like you.”

Who knows if they will make an offer on this house.  If this isn’t the one, no worries.  I know I am their realtor.  I want to sell them the right house, not just any house.

 

It’s like the most boring baseball game ever

by John Rice

I have always said that first time buyers grease the real estate market.  Not that I’ve played much baseball since I was a kid, but I always pictured the market this way:  The bases are loaded with people who needed to buy and sell, then a first time buyer hits a home run and lets everybody else move.  Being the person who didn’t have anything to sell kept the market moving.

That wonderful analogy that I have been using my entire career doesn’t work any more.

First time buyers are struggling to get a house.  The person on first base can’t find their second base house, the second base person can’t find their third base house, etc.  They know selling their old house will be easy, but they dread the thought of being a buyer right now.  So they stay put….and that first time buyer keeps striking out.

Now that I think about it, being a realtor feels just like when I went on a 7th grade field trip to see the Reds play.  There was a lot of waiting for something to happen, and then a brief moment of excitement.  That is how the market is today.  A lot of waiting.  A lot of checking for new listings.  A lot of networking to find houses not on the market yet.  Then when a house that meets your buyer’s criteria hits the market, a lot of excitement.